Blockworks Analyst Says Polymarket Pricing for Variational May Be Too Optimistic

Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens said on X that Polymarket’s current valuation of Variational at about $1.5 billion in FDV appears too optimistic. According to Odaily, she said the pricing applies Hyperliquid- and Lighter-level valuation multiples to a platform that still relies on points subsidies.Devens said the median first-day FDV-to-annualized revenue multiple for recently launched perpetual DEX tokens is 6.3 times, while Variational is currently around 57 times. She also said median trading volume falls 54% in the first month after TGE.Using the 6.3 times median multiple, Devens estimated Variational’s fair valuation at $167 million, implying a points price of $4.8 to $5.4. Using Lighter’s roughly 21.1 times multiple, she said the valuation would be about $558 million, with a points price of $16 to $18.Devens added that, given the current risk-on market environment, she does not expect Variational’s TGE valuation to fall to those conservative levels. She said the historical multiples were cited to show that current pre-launch over-the-counter pricing may be too optimistic.