Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $1.6 Million by 2036 as Four-Year Cycle Fades

Bitwise predicts Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036, over the next decade.Why Bitwise Is So Bullish On BTCThe asset manager raised Bitcoin its long-term growth assumption from 28.3% to 34.3%. Its previous $1.3 million projection was for 2035, rather than 2036.It identifies three major drivers:Institutional adoption: Bitcoin is transitioning from a retail-dominated asset to a mainstream institutional investment, supporting sustained capital inflows. Institutions could eventually allocate 1%–5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, generating $1.5 trillion–$7.4 trillion in inflows.Currency debasement: Rising government debt and persistent deficits could push investors toward hard assets such as Bitcoin and gold.Limited supply: Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap means rising demand cannot be met by increased production, unlike commodities such as gold.Bitcoin could benefit from declining dominance of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves, (71% in 1999 to 56.7% in 2026) and act as a potential tailwind for alternative stores of value.53% BTC Crash Signals Market MaturityBitcoin plunged 53% between its October 2025 peak and June 2026 low.But, Bitwise considers that encouraging compared with historical Bitcoin bear markets, which averaged drawdowns exceeding 80%.Broader institutional participation could gradually reduce Bitcoin’s volatility and weaken the traditional four-year cycle.Importantly, Bitwise does not believe major corrections or cyclical downturns will disappear.Quantum Computing And Regulation Remain Key RisksBitwise identifies quantum computing and regulatory uncertainty as major threats to Bitcoin’s bullish outlook.Advances in quantum computing could require Bitcoin to adopt stronger cryptographic protections, while the Clarity Act’s failure to advance in 2026 highlights persistent regulatory challenges.The firm also warns that institutional, corporate and sovereign adoption could slow or reverse.Preview Image: Shutterstock