Bitcoin's 'winter' may be ending, Ned Davis turns bullish

BITCOIN'S 'WINTER' MAY BE ENDING, NED DAVIS TURNS BULLISHNed Davis Research on Thursday turned "bullish" on bitcoin, saying the cryptocurrency has "enough momentum" to retest its 2025 high of $123,000 by mid-2027, representing about 44% upside from levels near $85,000.The research firm said its preferred short-, intermediate- and long-term trend indicators have all turned bullish, strengthening its conviction on the cryptocurrency.BTC= has lost nearly 5% year-to-date as a surge in government bond yields and uncertainty around the Iran conflict triggered a broader risk-off move, but it recovered some ground recently as oil prices retreated to two-week lows."Bitcoin's average returns in October (26%) and November (35.5%) are the highest of any month; October’s median return of 17% is the highest median return of all months," highlighted Ned Davis.The research firm pointed to favorable seasonality, with October and November historically being bitcoin's strongest months based on average returns.The cryptocurrency is also approaching the end of what the firm calls "Bitcoin Winter," a weaker period that typically occurs in the third year of bitcoin's four-year halving cycle."Bitcoin tends to rally sharply after Bitcoin Winter ends," the brokerage said, noting that prices have more than doubled on average in the six months following the end of the past three such cycles.Ned Davis Research also sees the dollar debasement trade as a key tailwind, arguing that concerns over US government debt and a weaker dollar could steer investors toward scarce assets such as bitcoin, whose supply is capped at 21 million coins.But that tailwind could reverse if the dollar strengthens, a risk that has come into sharper focus as persistent US inflation and a resilient economy fuel expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of crucial national elections in November.