Bitcoin Will Crash to $20,000 in 2027 Before Eventually Hitting $1M, Analyst Claims

Bitcoin may be approaching a short-term recovery, but renowned market analyst Alessio Rastani warns that the bigger risk is a multi-year bear market beginning in 2027.In a Cointelegraph interview on Aug. 6, Rastani noted that Bitcoin could stage a temporary rally over the next three to six months before another major decline.His longer-term thesis draws partly on an Elliott Wave analysis from veteran market forecaster Robert Prechter, which suggests Bitcoin completed a five-wave advance around its $126,000 all-time high.Under Elliott Wave theory, completing a five-wave advance can precede a larger correction toward the previous fourth-wave region.Prechter’s interpretation produces an extremely bearish long-term target around $3,500, corresponding with Bitcoin’s 2018 bear-market lows.The analyst doesn’t expect such an extreme decline.Instead, he sees $20,000-$25,000 as a more realistic downside target by the end of 2027. "I’m less bearish than Bob," he added.Why Bitcoin Could Still Rally in 2026The bearish long-term outlook doesn’t mean Bitcoin is necessarily headed straight down.BTC is currently holding around a key 21-period quarterly exponential moving average, according to the analyst, potentially providing the foundation for another short-to-medium-term recovery.The critical downside level is around $57,000.“If Bitcoin drops below $57,000 in the next few months, then brace for impact,” he said.Such a breakdown could open the door to the next support zone around $47,000-$49,000, corresponding with the 34-period quarterly EMA.For now, however, he expects support to hold and believes Bitcoin could bounce before the larger bearish structure develops.What About $1 Million BTC?Despite his bearish medium-term forecast, the analyst remains bullish on Bitcoin over a much longer horizon.He says BTC could eventually reach $1 million but considers forecasts calling for that milestone by 2030 highly improbable.Instead, he sees $1 million as achievable over the next 10 to 20 years.“Before we get to a million, we need to see Bitcoin dropping at least to $20,000 and probably even below $20,000 to $16,000 and maybe even close to $10,000,” he said.Only after that correction, he argues, would the foundation be in place for Bitcoin’s longer-term march toward $300,000 and eventually $1 million.Image: Shutterstock