Bitcoin Trapped in Range With Focus on US Midterm Elections, Fed and Big Tech Earnings

Bitcoin is continuing to trade within a narrow range without establishing a clear direction. Investors are watching whether next month's US midterm elections, the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision later this month and earnings reports from major technology companies will provide a catalyst for a breakout.Forbes reported on Oct. 23 that Tim Enneking, managing partner at Psalion, sees the US midterm elections on Nov. 3 as the biggest variable. With tariffs, the risk of a US-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war already weighing on risk assets, uncertainty over the US policy response after the vote could deepen market jitters.He said a heavy Republican defeat could prompt President Donald Trump to respond to tariffs and war-related issues in unpredictable ways. Investors should watch not only the election result but also any policy shifts that follow, he added.Before that, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 27-28 stands as the near-term inflection point. Hugo Renodin, chief executive officer of Ulys, said the Fed's rate decision on Oct. 28 and Big Tech earnings are the main macroeconomic variables that will shape Bitcoin's direction. He also said spot ETF fund flows should be monitored.In the derivatives market, the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish bets is continuing. Ray Salmond, founder of Stay Solvent Research, said about $8 billion of short positions above the spot price and about $7.6 billion of long positions below it appear to be exposed to liquidation risk.Salmond said some short positions were liquidated after Bitcoin rose to $84,890 on Oct. 21, but profit-taking emerged near $85,000 and slowed the advance. That in turn stalled a so-called short squeeze, in which rising prices force bearish bets to close and the resulting buying pushes prices even higher.On the downside, $80,000 has been identified as a key support level. Salmond said about $3.57 billion of long positions at that level and about $3.6 billion near $79,000 are at risk of liquidation. If support gives way, forced selling could add to downward pressure.