Bitcoin Slips as Investors Await U.S. Data — Market Talk

0206 GMT - Bitcoin slips in Asia. Investors awaiting the U.S. September PCE data--the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation--due later Thursday. The Fed would have less room to lower borrowing costs if U.S. price pressures persist, says XS.com's Antonio Di Giacomo in a note. For bitcoin, such a scenario could limit gains. Higher rates increase the appeal of interest-bearing assets and may curb investors' willingness to take risks, he adds. Bitcoin falls 1.35% to $80,164.63. ([email protected])0139 GMT - Asian currencies are mixed against the greenback. Although the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates was widely expected, it drew dissents from two officials in favor of a quarter-point increase. Investor attention now turns to the U.S. PCE inflation data due later Thursday for signs that higher energy costs are feeding into underlying price pressures, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a report. A firmer print could further reinforce expectations for a December Fed hike and keep Treasury yields elevated, the senior currency analyst adds. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 157.84 yen, but is 0.7% lower at 1,332.00 won, while the Australian dollar is 0.2% higher at US$0.7065, LSEG data show.([email protected])0101 GMT - Japanese government bond yields are higher amid caution ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate decision on Friday. While the BOJ is expected to maintain its policy rate following an increase last month, economists are looking for any signals of near-term rate increases. Overnight, the Fed held rates steady and its policy statement nodded subtly toward another increase. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East and energy prices. The 10-year JGB yield is half a basis point higher at 2.830% and the 2-year yield is also up half a basis point at 1.905%. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)0020 GMT - Japan's Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.6% at 64354.90 as gains in artificial intelligence-related shares help offset losses in video game and other electronics stocks. Kioxia Holdings is up 4.8% and SoftBank Group is 1.6% higher, while Omron is down 2.7% and Konami Group is 2.0% lower. The broader market index Topix is down 0.2% at 3985.52. The dollar is at 157.99 yen, compared with Y157.91 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on crude oil prices and bond yields as well as domestic corporate earnings. Denso and Komatsu are set to announce their results later Thursday. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)2349 GMT - Japanese stocks may decline as caution over the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies continues. Nikkei futures are down 0.4% at 64285 on the SGX. The dollar is at 157.72 yen, compared with Y157.91 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. The Fed's policy statement nodded subtly toward another increase after it held rates steady overnight. The Bank of Japan is starting a two-day policy meeting on Thursday. Investors are focusing on crude oil prices, bond yields and domestic corporate earnings. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.1% to 63954.19 on Wednesday.([email protected])2330 GMT [Dow Jones]--Demographics are shifting from a global economic growth tailwind to a headwind, says Samara Hammoud, economist at CBA. Across the G20, CBA estimates ageing will subtract around 0.16 percentage points from annual GDP per capita growth between 2025 and 2050. By 2050, GDP per capita could be around 3.9% lower than if the 2025 age structure remained unchanged, she adds. Italy faces the largest drag, with demographic change potentially leaving GDP per capita around 14% lower by 2050, she says. Germany, China and Japan also face sizeable headwinds. In contrast, India and Indonesia should continue to benefit from relatively young populations, Hammoud adds. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)2155 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia appears primed to deliver a fifth interest rate increase this cycle at its policy meeting next week. Hawkish comments from bank officials and high 3Q inflation data have seemingly put a hike in the official cash rate to 4.85% from 4.60% currently beyond doubt. So hawkish and frequent has the rhetoric from the RBA been, there should already be a solid focus on the RBA's December 7-8 policy meeting. There's a lot at stake for the RBA's credibility and the economy as inflation rises. There's plenty of further public appearance planned in coming weeks too. A sixth hike would be very painful, but it can't be ruled out. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)2001 GMT - Treasury yields move unevenly as the Fed meets expectations and keeps interest rates unchanged, while Chairman Warsh avoids forward guidance, as is his typical style. Markets now are pricing in a hike in December. GDP data and PCE inflation, both due tomorrow, could change that perception. The 10-year yield settles at 5.044%, up 0.052 percentage point from yesterday, its largest one-day increase in a month. The two-year ends up little changed from the previous session, at 4.731%, after falling sharply during Warsh's press conference. The WSJ Dollar Index goes from rising slightly to falling 0.1%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1908 GMT - While there were dissents from FOMC members Cook and Hammack, Evercore ISI finds it interesting that Logan, Barr and Kashkari did not dissent in the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged. "We read this as broad acceptance that a quarterly pace that gives time to learn is acceptable. And we suspect Logan's position signals wider sensitivity to financial conditions," the economists say. They add that they believe governor Cook is one of several governors "who are not big fans of Warsh and have at points this year tried to press him on hikes." But the economists say they don't think her decision to dissent indicates the center of the FOMC "is more hawkish than we thought." ([email protected])1837 GMT - The dollar is unmoved by the Fed's decision to hold rates steady, which was widely expected. Two FOMC members dissent to vote for a hike. "We think the smaller-than-expected number of dissents and cautionary language inserted at the end of the statement should be read dovishly on the margins," Corpay's Karl Schamotta writes. He adds that "[the] cross-currency rate differentials that helped support the dollar's gains earlier this autumn are likely to hold firm for now." The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1% as the greenback strengthens 0.2% versus the yen while weakening 0.1% against the euro.([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1834 GMT - Fitch Ratings says the global credit risk environment has declined since the publication of its last Global Risk Outlook, citing emerging threats to AI capex and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The agency also said tightened funding conditions are among the factors pointing toward a more heightened risk environment heading into 2027. Fitch says its base case is for yields to stabilize, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling back to 4.8% by the end of next year, but added there are risks to the upside. These include the possibility of higher oil prices should shipments through the Straits of Hormuz continue to be hampered next year, Fitch says. ([email protected])1822 GMT - Treasury yields edge higher as the Fed holds rates unchanged, as expected. FOMC members Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissent to support a hike. The post-meeting statement says economic activity is expanding at a strong pace, adding that spending has been resilient, productivity is strong, capital investment is robust and job gains "have kept pace with the workforce," while inflation remains elevated. It states, however, that uncertainty remains elevated due, in part, to "geopolitical developments." The 10-year yield reaches an intraday high of 5.04% following the decision and ahead of Chairman Warsh's presser. The two-year is at 4.78%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)