Bitcoin Rises Amid Growing Rate Cut Hopes From Soft U.S. Jobs Report — Market Talk

2103 ET - Bitcoin rises in early Asian trade, gaining 0.6% to $64,167.13. The cryptocurrency's recent gains are driven by the softer-than-expected U.S. jobs print for June, which immediately eases rate hike pressure, Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori says. Still, while growing rate cut hopes may appear to be a positive catalyst for bitcoin, they don't automatically signal a bullish market. "With a hawkish Fed focused on inflation credibility, one soft report may not be enough to move [the market]," Dori adds. Instead, bitcoin's ability to hold on to its gains will depend less on the latest macro headlines and more on underlying market liquidity, Sygnum says.([email protected])2047 ET - Gold falls in early Asian trade. The yellow metal's prices are likely at risk after successive sessions of gains, says Hola Prime's Somesh Kapuria in commentary, noting gold has remained on a downward trend since the beginning of the year. A stronger dollar could also be weighing on the precious metal, he adds. This week's Federal Open Market Committee minutes are likely to be pivotal to shaping the near-term path for yields and, by extension, gold, he adds. Spot gold drops 0.4% to $4,149.79 a troy ounce. ([email protected])2039 ET - The yen consolidates against the dollar and other currencies amid mixed developments. On the one hand, "concerns over fiscal expansion [in Japan] and perceptions that the BoJ is still behind the curve have kept depreciation pressure on the JPY," two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a research report. On the other hand, Japanese authorities are expected to "lean on FX intervention to support the JPY," the strategists say. Risk of FX intervention is "seen rising sharply around the [dollar-yen's] 163-164 area" they add. The dollar is little changed at 162.15 yen, and the euro is flat at Y185.47, LSEG data show. ([email protected])2028 ET - JGBs are mixed in price terms ahead of the Japanese Finance Ministry's auction today of about 600 billion yen of 30-year sovereign debt. Although the 30-year issue "does not look particularly attractive from a [relative-value] standpoint, its high outright yield stands out," SMBC Nikko Securities' Miki Den says in a research report. "We think real money, not fast money, is likely to take center stage at the auction," the senior Japan rates strategist says. The 10-year JGB yield is unchanged at 2.830% while the 30-year yield is up 1 bp at 4.085%. ([email protected])2020 ET - Japanese shares are lower in early trade, led by losses among technology and chip-related names. "The profitability of AI investment is still a risk factor to monitor," two strategists at BofA Securities Japan say in a recent research report. "We also need to assess the underlying trajectory of U.S. employment," they add. Among the worst performers on the benchmark index, Kioxia Holdings is down 6.2%, Lasertec is off 5.2%, and Sumco Corp. is 4.4% lower. The dollar is at 162.12 yen, compared with 162.09 yen late Monday in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 0.5% at 69386.29. ([email protected])2003 ET - Australian consumer confidence remains in the doldrums, and the lack of optimism has become one of the defining things about the economy. The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey showed confidence fell 1.2 points last week to a bleak 74.7 points. The cumulative impact of successive shocks such as Covid, surging living costs, and spiking fuel costs has taken a toll. The latest blow came from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which indicated last week that interest rates may need to rise further. Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at Challenger, says a lack of housing affordability and wealth inequality are also factors. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)1933 ET - Japanese stocks may rise, tracking Wall Street's gains overnight. Domestic technology equities are likely to get a boost from Monday's rise in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, with the artificial-intelligence trade picking up again. Nikkei futures open 305 points higher at 70255 on the SGX. The dollar is at 162.02 yen, compared with 162.09 yen late Monday in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average closed little changed at 69737.69 on Monday. ([email protected])1728 ET - Walmart and its Sam's Club business are lowering prices on thousands of products including ground beef, soda, snacks, and ice cream. President Trump initially announced the changes in a post on Truth Social, saying the company had cut prices at his administration's request and calling it a "truly patriotic Company who loves the U.S.A." Walmart confirmed the price cuts shortly after, but made no mention of the administration's involvement. "Customers count on Walmart to deliver the value they need every day, and summer is no exception," Walmart Executive Vice President and Chief Merchant Julie Barber says. ([email protected])1646 ET - U.S. stocks extend last week's gains amid expectations of AI-driven earning growth. ISM's services PMI keeps indicating expansion, with a June reading of 54, close to expectations and little changed from May. Samsung is expected to report on 2Q performance tomorrow, while SpaceX will enter the Nasdaq 100. A potential oil glut eases crude prices and inflation fears. Crypto miner TeraWulf and Claude maker Anthropic enter a 20-year, $19 billion lease for an AI infrastructure campus. Nasdaq rises 1.1% to 26121. The S&P 500 increases 0.7% to 7537, while the DJIA adds 156 points, or 0.3%, to 53056. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1542 ET - Treasury yields change little to start a week light in economic indicators, and amid a lull in war-related headlines. Oil prices decline on expected increased supply, likely easing inflation fears. Fed fund futures keep pricing at least one Fed rate hike this year. The ISM purchasing managers index for services providers was slightly lower in June, at 54, roughly in line with WSJ consensus and still in expansionary territory. Investors are likely to scrutinize Fed minutes Wednesday to better understand the central bank's latest hawkish tilt. The 10-year yield rises 0.002 percentage point to 4.479%. The two-year falls 0.006 p.p. to 4.124%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1536 ET - The strength of semiconductor stocks during the second quarter may make it challenging for companies to impress the market with their second quarter financial results, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. "We see upside to estimates across most sub-sectors of the semiconductor ecosystem heading into 2Q earnings," the analysts write. "But following dramatic outperformance for the sector in 2Q (SOX up 88% vs. SPX up 14%), we see a more challenging trading setup ahead of earnings." Still, the analysts see upside for companies that serve artificial-intelligence hyperscalers, the industrial and defense sectors, and memory technology manufacturers. ([email protected])1523 ET - U.S. natural gas futures post moderate gains with summer weather providing support against an abundant supply situation. On the bullish side is the recent heat wave which will be accounted for in the next two storage reports, while the coming 15-day weather pattern "is rather hot overall," with with implied cooling demand above normal most days, NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Light wind energy generation expected in the next few days will also likely give gas a greater share of the fuel used for power generation, the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas settles up 1.5% at $3.245/mmBtu. ([email protected])