Bitcoin Rises After Fed Keeps Rates Steady — Market Talk

0202 GMT - Bitcoin rises in Asian trading after the Fed left rates unchanged overnight. The central bank's decision, seen as positive for risk assets, will likely shape bitcoin's near-term direction, crypto platform Bitfinex analysts say. Traders are watching whether spot ETF inflows will recover following the FOMC meeting and help the cryptocurrency break the $68,000-$68,500 resistance range after a period of de-risking, they add. Still, bitcoin's summer lull persists, with weak underlying demand remaining its biggest constraint. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, has raised cash instead of purchasing more bitcoin for a fifth consecutive week. Bitfinex says July is on track to record the lowest average daily bitcoin spot trading volume by month since November 2023. Bitcoin is last up 1.2% at $64,236.91. ([email protected])0025 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar but may strengthen on dimmer Fed rate-hike prospects following the FOMC meeting's outcome and Fed Chairman Warsh's press conference on Wednesday. Warsh "acknowledged that nominal and real yields had increased materially between meetings," CBA's Samara Hammoud says in a research report. Markets have interpreted this as leaning on yields to deliver the tightening, rather than signalling an imminent policy action from the Fed, the international economist and currency strategist adds. The U.S. dollar falls 0.2% to 1,438.70 won, but is little changed at 1.2886 Singapore dollar, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0021 GMT - The Nikkei Stock Average is 0.4% higher at 61683.96 as gains in electronics stocks offset losses in financial shares. Hitachi Ltd. is up 3.3%, and Kokusai Electric is 4.7% higher, while Nomura Holdings is down 6.7% and Mizuho Financial Group is 2.8% lower. The broader market index, Topix, is down 0.6% at 3949.23. The dollar is at 163.26 yen, compared with Y163.55 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching earnings, developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)0013 GMT - Foreign-exchange markets are focusing on the BOJ's forward guidance at its two-day meeting that starts today, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. They are eyeing "whether the BOJ upgrades its growth outlook, and whether it continues to view inflation risks as skewed to the upside," the senior market analyst says. "The lack of a hawkish surprise remains the most likely outcome, which could weigh on the Japanese yen," he says. However, "traders should always be on guard for a surprise when the BOJ is involved, as it has a long history of catching markets off guard," Simpson adds. The dollar is 0.1% lower at 163.22 yen, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0007 GMT - JGB futures fall in the morning Tokyo session before the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting that starts today. There is also a focus on the Japanese Finance Ministry's auction today of about 2.8 trillion yen in 2-year sovereign notes. "With the BOJ decision due the day after the auction, we expect the market to be firmly in wait-and-see mode," says SMBC Nikko Securities' Lisa Mochizuki in a report. However, "given the meeting is presumably unlikely to provide enough evidence to materially deepen conviction in an accelerated hiking scenario, the auction is likely to clear smoothly if held at yields around 1.5%," the junior analyst adds. The benchmark 10-year JGB futures are 0.31 yen lower at 127.17 yen. ([email protected])2347 GMT - Japanese stocks may decline as the Iran conflict continues to stoke concerns about higher energy prices. Nikkei futures are down 0.9% at 61880 on the SGX. The dollar is at 163.37 yen, compared with Y163.55 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices. President Trump vowed to retaliate after Iran launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.5% to 61434.19 on Wednesday. ([email protected])1953 GMT - Treasury yields are mixed as the Fed holds interest rates unchanged with three dissenters voting for an increase. Chairman Warsh reaffirms the commitment to bring inflation down to 2%, while staying away from explicit forward guidance. Crude rallies 7% on renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Tomorrow, June PCE inflation is expected to cool, and so is 2Q GDP, according to WSJ consensus. Jobless claims are forecast to tick higher. The 10-year yield rises 0.017 percentage point to 4.621% and the more Fed-sensitive two-year falls 0.040 p.p. to 4.235%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1836 GMT - Mexico's economic activity likely picked up in 2Q with a positive impact on services from the soccer World Cup that the country co-hosted with the U.S. and Canada. Gross domestic product is expected to have expanded 1.3% from the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, according to a WSJ survey of analysts, following a 0.6% contraction in 1Q. GDP is seen up 1.5% unadjusted from 2Q of 2025. National statistics institute Inegi is scheduled to report preliminary 2Q GDP data on Thursday. ([email protected])1820 GMT - Major cryptocurrencies rise following the Federal Reserve's 9-3 vote to leave interest rates unchanged. Traders were tentative ahead of the decision in anticipation of a potential surprise rate hike supporting a stronger dollar and hitting riskier assets like cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is now up 0.8% to $64,334, while ethereum rises 0.1% to $1,919, XRP is up 2.2% to $1.09, and solana rises 0.1% to $74.10. ([email protected])1817 GMT - Treasury yields and the dollar fall on the Fed's decision to keep rates steady. Markets had been mostly pricing a hold, but nearly a third of investors bet on a hike, according to fed futures markets via CME. The decision has three dissents voting for a rate increase, likely boosting odds of a September hike. Energy prices driven by the war in Iran remain a worrisome factor in monetary-policy decisions. The two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Fed moves, falls to 4.281% from 4.316% ahead of the decision. The 10-year slips to 4.627% from 4.637%. The WSJ Dollar Index is down 0.2% after trading flat earlier. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1802 GMT - Since the June meeting, Fed officials got a lackluster June jobs report and a cooler set of June inflation numbers. The outbreak of renewed conflict in the Middle East has also pushed up energy prices in July. Despite those evolving dynamics, the Fed's July policy statement is effectively unchanged from the brief memo published after the central bank's June meeting. At the June meeting, the first led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, the Fed trimmed down its statement substantially--and the lack of a meaningful update in July emphasizes the Warsh Fed's reluctance to provide much insight into its deliberations or forward-looking expectations. ([email protected]; @mattgrossman)1744 GMT - Bitcoin turns negative ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Data from Deribit shows that investors are largely holding calls for expiration July 31, with the majority of calls landing around $71,000. Those holding puts are largely holding them around $60,000, which is below the near-term support levels seen for bitcoin in today's trading. Bitcoin is down 0.2% to $63,759, while ethereum falls 1.1% to $1,895 and solana drops 1.1% to $73.17. XRP is one of the few major cryptocurrencies that are managing to stay positive today, up 0.9% to $1.07. ([email protected])