Bitcoin Loses $80,000: Why Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Is Key

Bitcoin is back below $80,000 and testing a critical zone near its 50-week moving average ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech at 10 a.m. ET today.Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said on Thursday that the next one to two weeks could determine whether the rally is a true breakout or another bear market fakeout.The setup reminds him of prior midterm-year rallies, especially 2018, when Bitcoin bounced hard, hit the 50-week moving average, then rolled over into a deeper fourth-quarter low.Cowen said Bitcoin’s current structure has tracked the 2018 bear market analog closely, with a February low near $60,000, a higher low in late March or early April, a lower high in May, followed by a summer sweep below $60,000 and a rally back toward the 50-week moving average.In 2018, Bitcoin also rallied to the 50-week moving average, briefly faked higher, then sold off into a deeper Q4 bottom.This time, the rally took longer to develop, but Cowen said the path still looks similar enough to keep the bearish scenario alive.Key Bitcoin LevelsCowen said the market is now focused on whether Bitcoin can accept above the low-to-mid $80,000s, with his key line being $85,000."If Bitcoin starts accepting on multiple weekly closes in the mid-80s, it really calls into question the validity of the continuation of the bear market," Cowen said.If Bitcoin stalls between $80,000 and $85,000, he said the 2018-style rejection case remains intact.If Bitcoin breaks through with multiple weekly closes, Cowen said he would drop the bear-market thesis.What to Watch for From Jackson Hole Cowen said Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments may drive short-term volatility, but he does not think the speech alone will decide Bitcoin’s cycle.The larger issue is whether stocks correct.Cowen noted that prior midterm-year Bitcoin lows were tied to stock-market drawdowns: in 2014, the S&P 500 dropped around 10%, while in 2018 and 2022 the index fell about 20%.If stocks avoid a correction this year, Cowen said Bitcoin’s $57,000 summer low could hold.If stocks correct into September or October, Bitcoin could still revisit lower levels.Cowen’s Plan Beyond Jackson HoleCowen stressed that he is not telling investors to perfectly time the bottom.He said his own strategy has been to begin accumulating Bitcoin in the second half of midterm years, even if the market later moves lower.He started buying in July when Bitcoin dropped below his risk threshold, but said he is not fully allocated.His message to investors: if the low is already in, missing the first 30% to 40% rally does not mean missing the entire cycle."Don’t let missing the beginning of a move force you to miss the entire thing," Cowen said.Image: ShutterstockRead Also: