Bitcoin Is Back. Buy at Your Own Risk. — Barrons.com

By Alex RosenbergBitcoin is back-and what matters less than the news that got it there is the fact that there is news to begin with.The cryptocurrency has surged 25% in the past two weeks to rise as high as $81,000. And suddenly the sentiment around Bitcoin has shifted, because nothing changes sentiment like price, and there may be nothing as sentiment driven as Bitcoin.That's not to say there aren't fundamental drivers you could point to. Bitcoin's recent rally started on Aug. 19 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to least double the size of bond repurchases. Then, later that day President Donald Trump hosted a group of crypto CEOs-"Tremendous investors, brilliant people"-and pushed Congress to pass the Clarity Act, which would establish a clearer regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.How much do these drivers matter? Well, if the Clarity Act is passed, it might make Bitcoin more palatable to mainstream investors, providing a bit of a demand boost. And Bessent's rather transparent effort to talk down yields led to worries about the potential for dollar devaluation-sending the currency lower and boosting gold in addition to Bitcoin.Rock-solid catalysts these are not, but after a long fallow period for Bitcoin, investors will take what they can get. The cryptocurrency is still down 10% this year and even after this rally, is still cheaper than it was at the end of 2024. "There have been massive, long liquidations, and sentiment gauges have been very, very low," says Josh Olszewicz, head of trading at digital asset manager Canary Capital.But recent news events spiked prices, leading to short squeezes, leading to higher prices, leading to media attention, leading to investor interest, leading to higher prices still, in what he calls a "flywheel effect."Olszewicz cautions that there are some signs that Bitcoin is topping out in the near-term, which lines up with seasonal trends; historically, Bitcoin hasn't tended to do well in September. But he adds that any September weakness could "lead to a really great fourth quarter," which lines up with his view that this could be the start of a more sustained "bullish trend."Nick Colas of DataTrek Research is a bit more pessimistic. "My impression is that we'll need to see more headlines from Treasury about managing the yield curve for Bitcoin to keep rallying," he says.That could certainly help-but so would any other news that keeps it in the headlines.Write to Alex Rosenbrerg at [email protected] content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.