Bitcoin Hovers Around $80,000 as Next Stress Test Looms — Market Talk

0203 GMT - Bitcoin edges higher in Asia's morning session but remains around the $80,000 level as markets await key U.S. data and central bank decisions. "With a Fed rate hold largely priced in and nearly $11 billion in Bitcoin options approaching expiry, markets face a test of policy expectations, spot demand and derivatives positioning," says Bitget Wallet Research. Hawkish Fed signals could reinforce expectations of higher yields and a stronger dollar, while softer guidance could offer a tailwind for Bitcoin. GDP and inflation data will further shape rate expectations. "Derivatives positioning suggests a cautious market," Bitget Wallet Research adds, suggesting range-bound trading ahead of Friday's expiry. A sustained break below $78,500-$79,500 or above $81,000-$82,000 could trigger larger moves via clustered liquidations. Bitcoin rises 0.2% to $79,944.50. ([email protected])0159 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the U.S. dollar in early trade. Tuesday's session is expected to be dominated by the lead up to Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, with markets pricing about a 90% probability of a hold, says UOB's global economics and markets research team in a note. The focus has already shifted to the Fed meeting in December, where futures imply around a 80% chance of a rate increase, UOB adds. The U.S. dollar edges 0.2% lower to 1,323.30 won, but is little changed at 1.2805 Singapore dollars, while the Australian dollar is 0.1% higher at US$0.7023, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0150 GMT - Australian financial markets could get instant analysis of the crucial 3Q 2026 CPI data on Wednesday from the Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will be testifying before parliament just as the data is reported. If she's asked about the numbers, her comments are likely to be more market moving than the data itself. The bank has been hyper-hawkish recently, so her remarks could be explosive. Still, she may also take a hard pass saying a responsible central bank assesses data thoughtfully and in its own time. A knee-jerk reaction from Bullock is probably unlikely. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0124 GMT - Economists are nearly unanimous in the view that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% on Wednesday. A survey by Bloomberg shows 23 out of 25 economists surveyed are expecting a hike. Sean Callow, currency strategist at ITC, says the certainty jars a little with the RBNZ's commentary in September about a gradual removal of accommodation and a gentle OCR track. The meeting outcome is likely to be a closer call than the survey suggests, he adds.([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0048 GMT - Japanese government bond yields are higher as Anthropic's IPO paperwork rekindles enthusiasm for chip and other artificial intelligence-related stocks. Fears about a potential AI bubble had prompted investors to shift to government bonds in recent weeks, bringing down yields. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy prices ahead of the Fed and the Bank of Japan's rate decisions later this week. The 10-year JGB yield is 2.5 bps higher at 2.805%. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)0041 GMT - Just a day ahead of crucial 3Q 2026 Australian inflation data, a survey has shown that consumer inflationary expectations are at their highest since May. The survey by ANZ Bank and Roy Morgan puts inflation expectations above 6.0% on year, which confirms the worst fears of the Reserve Bank of Australia that inflation expectations are a growing problem. Coming as the RBA indicates it has lost patience with inflation running hot, the data suggests that interest rates will rise further if core inflation stays elevated in 3Q. A reading of 1.0% on quarter or more would likely lock in the RBA's fifth hike this year. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0012 GMT - Japanese stocks are higher after Anthropic's IPO paperwork helped ease concerns about a potential AI bubble. Chip-related stocks are leading gains. Tokyo Electron is up 4.5% and Screen Holdings is 5.2% higher. The dollar is at 157.51 yen, compared with Y156.98 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching quarterly corporate results, with Japan Exchange Group scheduled to announce its earnings later Tuesday. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 1.7% at 63232.37. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)2347 GMT - Japanese stocks may rise after Anthropic's IPO paperwork helped alleviate concerns about a potential AI bubble. Nikkei futures are up 1.5% at 63185 on the SGX. The dollar is at 157.54 yen, compared with Y156.98 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on quarterly corporate earnings, with Japan Exchange Group set to report its results later Tuesday, as the earnings season begins. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.8% to 62189.65 on Monday. ([email protected])2247 GMT - The synergies that Daiichi Life could extract from Challenger may justify it making an improved offer for the Australian annuity provider, UBS analysts say. Having assessed capital and cost synergies, the UBS analysts think the Japanese insurer could lift its offer from 11.80 Australian dollars a share, to between A$12.90 and A$13.30. Even if it doesn't value Challenger's offshore expansion initiative, a range of A$12.40 to A$13.30 looks reasonable, they write in a note. UBS keeps a neutral rating and an A$12.25 target price on the stock. Shares are at A$11.85 ahead of the open. ([email protected])2235 GMT - Is the residential property slowdown in southeast Queensland state a cause for concern? UBS poses the question following 1Q updates from Stockland and Mirvac. Both companies signaled softer residential demand. Queensland had previously been a bright spot amidst a weak national market, analyst Solomon Zhang says. UBS highlights a sharp fall in Stockland's Queensland enquiry volumes. There were just 3,700 enquiries in 1Q, down 54% on quarter. "While this turn in momentum is clearly a negative, we do not think conditions are as bleak as feared," UBS says. One reason is that Queensland sales volumes have been more resilient, with 1Q volumes of 627 lots down 25% on quarter. Also, Stockland's enquiry-to-sales conversion ratio of 16.8% in 1Q was the highest level since at least 2019 for Queensland. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)2000 GMT - Volatility in Brazilian markets subsides a little from the initial shock triggered by the surprising success of leftist President Lula da Silva's reelection bid. Markets had been counting on his defeat to conservative Flavio Bolsonaro, who promised to trim government spending. But Lula may not be able to spend as freely as in the previous four years. "President Lula's biggest economic challenge is Brazil's public finances," Morningstar DBRS's Michael Heydt writes. "Without fiscal consolidation, interest rates are likely to remain elevated," he says. The iBovespa stock index falls 13%. In early trade, it fell as much as 17%. The Brazilian real weakens 8% against the dollar. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1946 GMT - Treasury yields are mixed ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting. Odds of an interest rate hold are priced at 90%, according to CME. The Treasury auctions $69 billion in two-year notes amid signs of soft demand. September durable goods orders are expected to increase 1.7%, according to a WSJ consensus, after being flat in August. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is forecast to cool slightly. The 10-year yield is unchanged at 4.987%, while the two-year rises 0.032 percentage point to 4.712%. The 30-year slips 0.014 point to 5.300%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)