Bitcoin holds above $80,000 backed by ETF flows; bull market case ‘early but optimistic,’ analyst says

Bitcoin (BTC) broke to multi-months highs on Monday to briefly touch $81,000 before retreating and holding above the $80,000 resistance level.Triggered by last week's U.S. Treasury buyback announcement, the recent rally has boosted market confidence, positioning the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at an "Extreme Greed" of 83.However, market watchers viewed the current rally as a catch-up trade rather than the start of a new bull cycle."While it's too early to call this a full-blown bull market, the move above $80,000 and the ETF inflows look like a catch-up trade since bitcoin has been lagging other risk assets for a while now," said Min Jung, associate researcher at Presto Research.Several other analysts maintained a cautious tone, citing tight liquidity, sticky inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty as key risks that continue to weigh on the market."I'd presume a bull market only after we sustain $100,000 for a month and the Fed signals rate cuts, which are still uncertain," said Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE.Strong caseStill, bitcoin's sharp weekly advance of more than $16,000 — producing one of its biggest green candles in history — combined with the return of solid spot ETF inflows is strengthening the case for a sustained rally, according to market analysts. Altcoins have also outperformed, with Ether up 32%, XRP up 53%, and Solana up 34% over the same period."The strength of the move, creating a large bullish engulfing candle on the daily, weekly, and potentially soon on the monthly, seems to hint at a radical trend change, from the boring accumulation to an 'up' market," said Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital."More importantly, the key driver of this move (the U.S. Treasury decision to artificially lower rates by buying back bonds) sends a powerful and solid signal that monetary conditions and thus capital are easing up. It's easy to see why BTC, which underperformed in the first half of 2026, would be the prime beneficiary of this," d'Anethan added.The Arctic Digital researcher also said additional signals from central banks or the U.S. Treasury would solidify this move, alongside crypto-native signs of strong ETF inflows and heightened on-chain activity or derivatives liquidity."It's early, but one can't help but feel optimistic," d'Anethan said.What to watchMarket watchers advised participants to look away from price levels and at the macro side.Zeus Research Analyst Dominick John said the crypto rally needs softer inflation, lower Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. He added that this week's PCE Price Index "will be key" in determining whether inflation is cooling enough to support easier Fed policy and looser financial conditions."A softer-than-expected reading could boost risk assets, while a hotter print could pressure yields and liquidity," John said.Meanwhile, Jung of Presto pointed to the bond market for the long-term macro outlook."30-year yields hitting their highest since 2007 says a lot about where the macro backdrop is heading, and that will likely matter on the overall market and the sentiment," Jung said, indicating that elevated long-term rates point to tighter financial conditions and a challenge for risk assets like crypto.Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.