Bitcoin Hit $80,000 With Little Whale Participation: Is That Bullish or Bearish?

Bitcoin has surged 25% over the past seven days, but whale profit-taking and key resistance could determine whether the rally marks a bullish reversal or another bear-market bounce.Can Spot Demand Sustain BTC Rally?In an interview with David Lin on Tuesday, top technical analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin’s recent breakout began shortly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to double Treasury bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.A major short squeeze helped power Bitcoin’s initial breakout, alongside some spot demand.But his whale activity indicator shows surprisingly little participation from large holders during the latest advance.While BTC whale activity increased substantially around Bitcoin’s 2018 and 2022 lows, the current reading remains close to its lows despite the rapid rally.Cowen sees Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average around $80,000 to $81,000 as the key test for the rally.Multiple weekly closes above it could weaken the bearish case, while rejection could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a drop toward its realized price in the low $50,000s.New Whales Book Record $1.2 Billion ProfitCryptoQuant data adds another test for the rally.New Bitcoin whales realized more than $1.2 billion in profits over three days, the largest profit-taking event ever recorded for the cohort. Realized profits peaked at roughly $614 million on Aug. 20, setting a single-day record.Bitcoin’s move above the Short-Term Whale Realized Price near $68,900 pushed recently accumulated whale positions back into profit, triggering a key demand test.Holding roughly $70,000 as profit-taking fades could signal fresh demand is absorbing whale selling, CryptoQuant noted on Tuesday.However, a drop below it amid continued distribution could suggest the rally is serving as an exit opportunity for previously underwater holders.Is $57,000 the Bitcoin Bottom?Cowen said Bitcoin’s rally has increased the odds that $57,000 marked the cycle bottom, though some on-chain indicators have yet to reset.A sustained break above the 50-week moving average would strengthen that case, while rejection could send BTC back into the $60,000s.Despite the downside risk, Cowen isn’t looking to short Bitcoin, viewing the second half of a U.S. midterm year as a historically favorable accumulation period ahead of potentially stronger markets in 2027 and 2028.Image: Shutterstock