Bitcoin Has a Higher Chance of Hitting $50,000 Than $100,000 in 2026, Prediction Markets Say

Bitcoin whales are accumulating aggressively even as prediction markets project a higher chance of a drop to $50,000 than a run to $100,000 in 2026.When Is The “Next Major Leg Higher“?In an X post on Aug. 5, Trader exitpump pushed back against Kalshi prediction market odds that assign a roughly 55% probability of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 before reaching $100,000.The trader argued the market is undergoing its first meaningful retest of the FTX collapse anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), calling it one of Bitcoin’s most important long-term support levels."The FTX collapse wasn’t just another swing low," the trader said, noting it marked forced liquidations, panic selling and the beginning of a new market cycle.He added that years of ETF inflows, institutional participation and trading activity have turned the AVWAP into the average cost basis for a large share of Bitcoin accumulated since late 2022.“If Bitcoin continues attracting sustained spot demand here and fails to gain acceptance below this level, I think we’re watching the market build the base for the next major leg higher,” the trader added.Whale Accumulation — Bullish Or Cautious?CryptoQuant reported on Thursday that more than 38,000 BTC recently flowed into accumulation addresses. This is one of the largest inflows recorded for wallets typically associated with long-term holders and OTC settlement activity.The realized price, or average acquisition cost, of these accumulation wallets currently sits near $70,000, compared with Bitcoin trading around $64,000.CryptoQuant outlined two possible scenarios:Bullish case: Whales are accumulating in anticipation of the next leg higher.Cautious case: Some buyers may simply be averaging down with plans to distribute holdings if Bitcoin revisits their roughly $70,000 cost basis. The firm said the key signal will come if Bitcoin approaches that level.“Whether these wallets continue accumulating or begin distributing around that level will provide a much clearer signal about the next major trend,” CryptoQuant said.Image: Shutterstock