Bitcoin Falls as Investors Take Wait-And-See Approach — Market Talk

0228 GMT - Bitcoin falls in Asian trading. Investors are taking a 'wait and see' approach, with blockchain and trading activity data showing spot volume at multi-year lows, muted exchange flows and few signs of heavy buying or selling, Glassnode's Frederik Theissen says. The macro environment encourages capital to wait, as U.S. Treasury bonds offer attractive yields and a strong U.S. dollar makes dollar-denominated assets more appealing, denting appetite for risk assets. Theissen says bitcoin's current bear market has been relatively shallow compared with previous cycles but may not be over yet. A move above $69,000, supported by strong trading volume, would signal a meaningful recovery. Conversely, a fall below the $62,000-$68,000 support range would point to renewed selling pressure, Theissen says. Bitcoin is last down 0.6% at $64,350.46. ([email protected])0225 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session on a likely technical correction after it strengthened to more than one-month high versus the greenback on Thursday. "The broad USD sell-off gathered pace [overnight] after U.S. data underwhelmed," two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a note. Based on the daily chart, the U.S. dollar-Singapore dollar pair's relative strength index dropped to near oversold territory, though bearish momentum was intact, the strategists note. The U.S. dollar is 0.2% higher at 1.2835 Singapore dollars after touching S$1.2806 overnight, the lowest intraday level since June 15, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0208 GMT - South Korea's export growth likely slowed in July due to fewer working days, though robust memory-chip shipments continue to underpin overall momentum. The median forecast from a Wall Street Journal poll of 11 economists is for a 59.5% on-year increase in exports, easing from June's revised 70.7% rise. Imports are projected to have risen 26.3% on year, resulting in a $29.48 billion trade surplus in July, the poll shows. "Despite fewer working days than in July last year, the strong export momentum, driven by the continued semiconductor boom, is unlikely to change significantly," says iM Securities economist Park Sang-hyun. The trade data are due Saturday. ([email protected])0157 GMT - The U.S. dollar could trade between 4.08 ringgit and 4.10 ringgit next week, with risks tilted toward modest ringgit weakness, say Kenanga economists in a note. Investors will focus on the U.S. July labor market report, which could show stronger payroll growth than in June, though the unemployment rate could edge higher, they say. Cooling housing costs, moderating wage growth and easing inflation should keep the Fed on hold, although recent policy dissent leaves the possibility of a September rate hike. Investors could maintain defensive dollar positions until clearer economic and geopolitical signals emerge, they add. Kenanga expects the dollar to face resistance at 4.095 ringgit, with support at 4.083 ringgit. The dollar is 0.2% lower at 4.0810 ringgit. ([email protected])0152 GMT - The area for any Japanese government currency intervention is likely in a zone with the dollar around 162 yen to Y165, rather than a specific level, says State Street Investment Management senior fixed-income strategist Masahiko Loo. The yen strengthened sharply against the dollar overnight on suspected intervention, which Loo says was the right moment: after the Federal Reserve meeting, a touch softer U.S. inflation data, and immediately ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy decision later Friday. "The message is clear: intervention risk remains alive and well," Loo says. The dollar was last trading at Y160.57.([email protected])0148 GMT - Market participants are likely to be cautious over near-term bets on the yen, given the balance of risks, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a research report. Net yen short positions remain elevated close to all-time highs and Japanese "authorities may be looking to flush out these positions," the senior currency analyst says. Whether the yen extends Thursday's gain of as much as 3.3% will probably "depend on how the market reacts post the Bank of Japan policy meeting," Wan says. "Overall, we would as such be cautious on the [dollar-yen] pair heading into the weekend and early next week. The dollar is 0.7% higher at 160.61 yen, according to LSEG data. ([email protected])0133 GMT - Any surprise intervention by the Japanese government to prop up the yen is likely nothing more than a stopgap measure to buy time, says Daiwa Securities' chief currency strategist Kenta Tadaide. "To maximize the impact of currency intervention, monetary policy must align in the same direction," he says. "While the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold its policy rate steady at today's decision, market attention is focused on the message sent through its policy statement and Gov. [Kazuo] Ueda's news conference," he adds. The yen surged against the dollar overnight on suspected intervention, but weakened back to around 160.55 Friday morning. ([email protected])0030 GMT - The yen's focus is on BOJ Gov. Ueda's guidance at his post-meeting press conference today, following suspected yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities on Thursday, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. "If policymakers want to capitalise on the yen's renewed momentum, even a slightly hawkish tilt--such as higher growth or inflation forecasts, or guidance that leaves the door open to further tightening--could help extend Thursday's gains," the senior market analyst says. The U.S. dollar rises 0.4% to 160.21 yen, the Australian dollar gains 0.3% to Y113.83, and the euro adds 0.4% to Y184.64, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0019 GMT - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade following gains in U.S. technology stocks overnight. Electronics and bank stocks are leading the gains. Mitsubishi Electric is up 4.7% and Mizuho Financial Group is 3.6% higher. The dollar is at 160.22 yen, down sharply from Y163.60 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching earnings, developments in the Middle East and the Bank of Japan's rate decision due later Friday. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 2.7% at 63549.20. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)0017 GMT - The macroeconomic environment needs to change to reverse the trend of yen weakness, despite suspected yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities overnight, ING's Chris Turner says in a research report. "If the ING house call of unchanged Fed rates in September is correct, Japanese authorities have a chance of turning this trend," says the global head of Markets. "We're less convinced that a decisive [dollar-yen] move lower will be driven by the BoJ hawkishness, unless there is a huge surprise at BoJ meeting," Turner says. The dollar is 0.5% higher at 160.27 yen after falling as much as 3.3% to Y157.96 on Thursday, lowest intraday level since May 14, LSEG data show.([email protected])0009 GMT - JGBs edge lower in price terms in early Tokyo trade ahead of the BOJ's rate decision due today. With Japan's central bank likely to leave rates unchanged, "focus will be on forward guidance," J.P. Morgan Private Bank's Yuxuan Tang says in an email. "Markets currently price only one additional full rate hike by year-end," says the Asia Head of Rates & FX Strategy. "On the BOJ's explicit mandates of inflation and economic activity, the case for materially tighter policy remains limited," Tang adds. The 10-year JGB yield is up 0.5 bps at 2.800%. ([email protected])2342 GMT - Japanese stocks may rise following U.S. technology stock gains overnight. Nikkei futures are up 3.3% at 63900 on the SGX. The dollar is at 160.12 yen, down sharply from Y163.60 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on the Bank of Japan's rate decision due later Friday as well as developments in the Middle East. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.7% to 61867.43 on Thursday. ([email protected])