Bitcoin Falls Amid Prolonged Bottoming, Consolidation Phase — Market Talk

0230 GMT - Bitcoin falls in Asian trade as it remains in a prolonged cyclical bottoming and consolidation phase, CoinMarketCap analyst Ray Salmond says. Traders appear to have already priced in the fallout from the U.S. Congress's failed push to advance the pro-crypto Clarity Act, which has faced opposition from the Democrats, he adds. Salmond notes that bitcoin continues to lag as the S&P 500, Dow and key commodities climb toward new highs. With progress on the Clarity Act stalled, traders are expected to refocus on the coming U.S. CPI print, the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium and the September Fed meeting for clues on the central bank's interest-rate plans. Bitcoin is down 0.2% at $64,927.20. ([email protected])0208 GMT - With the Reserve Bank of Australia's August policy meeting now underway, ANZ says it prefer to be short the Aussie interest-rate market. The RBA appears set to hold interest rates steady but retain a hawkish tone and maintain "optionality" to tighten again if needed, says Madeline Dunk, economist at ANZ. Any votes for a hike by board members would be interpreted by the market as hawkish, she adds. With markets pricing in just 12 basis points of hikes by November and 16 basis points by year-end, there is a risk that pricing becomes more front-loaded into November, she adds. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0201 GMT - Asian currencies weaken against the dollar on possible position adjustments ahead of the U.S. CPI data due on Wednesday. This is a "key market event that could push up U.S. interest rates and the USD," CBA's Global Economic & Markets Research team says in a report. "There is a growing minority of FOMC members agitating for an increase in the [Fed] Funds rate," the team says. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.1% higher at 99.683, while the dollar is 0.3% higher at 158.29 yen and is up 0.6% at 1,416.50 won, according to LSEG data.([email protected])0151 GMT - It's often claimed that Australia's problem with weak productivity reflects global issues. But is that true? U.S. productivity growth has significantly outperformed Australia's. While the artificial-intelligence boom could be a key driver, it is too early for that, says Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC. Cheap energy, policy design in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and general economic dynamism are likely to have played a role in the U.S., he adds. Productivity growth has averaged 0.3% a year in Australia over the past decade, compared with 2.0% a year in the U.S. That is a cumulative underperformance of 20 percentage points of Australian GDP, he says. ([email protected];@JamesGlynnWSJ)0116 GMT - The world of private credit is approaching a flashpoint, says Christian Stracke, the president of Pimco. In an interview with The Australian newspaper, Stracke says the rush to deploy cash after the Covid-19 boom is now exposing poor lending decisions. The consequences of those decisions are being seen across the private credit landscape, he adds. Lenders were keen to trumpet the sums they had offered to borrowers. But many were far less keen to discuss how much of those funds they'd clawed back, he says. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0039 GMT - Australia's property market retreat is impacting the most expensive suburbs hardest. Higher interest rates and less favorable tax arrangements for property investors has seen house prices in ritzy suburbs like Sydney's Point Piper, Mosman, Vaucluse, Hunters Hills and Woolahra slugged. The data from property research group Cotality was published in the Australian Financial Review. In Melbourne, it's Toorak and Kew East that are bearing the brunt of the housing downturn. North Curl Curl on Sydney's northern beaches has led the nation's price declines, with median dwelling values tumbling 19.4% from their September 2025 peak of 4.1 million Australian dollars to A$3.3 million in July. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0019 GMT - Australia's property market has been hit hard in recent months by a pincer movement of higher interest rates and changes in the tax treatment of investment properties. House prices are tumbling and the risk is the retreat nationally could hit 10% in the next year. Westpac revealed Monday that mortgage applications have plunged by 20% since the federal budget in May as the outlook for property becomes murky. Westpac says business lending has grown faster than housing over the three months to the end of June, and housing credit was expected to keep falling as the property sector struggles. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0016 GMT - JGBs edge lower in early Tokyo trade amid a potentially quicker pace of BOJ rate hikes, after the Summary of Opinions from its July 30-31 meeting released earlier. In the summary, the central bank said: "Given that underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent and greater consideration should be given to upside risks to prices than before, it could be considered that the pace of policy interest rate hikes will be faster than market expectations, depending on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions." The two-year JGB yield is 1 bp higher at 1.615%; the 10-year yield is up 1 bp at 2.805%.([email protected])0015 GMT - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade after weak U.S. jobs data diminished prospects for the Fed's potential rate increases. Electronics and metals stocks are leading gains. Ibiden is up 7.4%, Furukawa Electric is up 8.8%, and Sumitomo Metal Mining is 5.7% higher. The dollar is at 157.88 yen, down from Y158.30 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching Japanese corporate results as well as developments in the Middle East. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 1.2% at 66376.25. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)0001 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may be buoyed by reduced Fed rate-hike prospects. Expectations for a Fed rate increase in September were lowered following the weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released Friday, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. "Fed fund futures now imply a 57% of no rate change in September, from a 54% chance of a hike before" the report, the senior market analyst notes. The U.S. dollar is steady at 1,407.80 won and is little changed at 6.7432 offshore yuan, while the Australian dollar edges 0.1% lower to US$0.7061, LSEG data show.([email protected])0001 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia's August policy meeting appeared contentious as recently as a couple of weeks ago. But after a softer 2Q CPI report, market expectations have converged to a highly likely on-hold decision on Tuesday. Having been proactive in tightening into a supply shock earlier in the year, the RBA now has room to pause due to the material undershoot on inflation, says Ben Jarman, chief economist at JP Morgan. The inflation upturn has been narrowly concentrated in goods and energy, supporting the view that May's hike would prove the last in the cycle, he adds. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)2345 GMT - Japanese stocks may rise after weak U.S. jobs data lowered expectations for potential rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Nikkei futures are up 1.0% at 66375 on the SGX. The dollar is at 157.85 yen, down from Y158.30 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on Japanese corporate earnings as well as developments in the Middle East. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.1% to 65606.71 on Friday. ([email protected])