Bitcoin Falls Amid Price Consolidation — Market Talk

0323 GMT - Bitcoin falls in Asian trading. The cryptocurrency is in a consolidation phase after failing to sustain a recovery above $66,000 and retreating from the $65,000 level, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish says. Long-term investors are holding onto their positioning, activity across the blockchain is improving, and demand for bitcoin ETFs is returning, providing support to prices. However, weaker buying activity in the spot market and cautious positioning among futures traders are weighing on investor sentiment, Glassnode adds. Bitcoin is down 0.2% at $63,656.42.([email protected])0314 GMT - China's trade activities likely slowed in July after robust growth in June, according to Citi analysts in a research note. "Logistic disruptions from typhoons, heavy rains and other weather events could have a meaningful negative impact on shipping," the analysts say. Cargo volume at ports dropped 3.0 % on year in July and both exports and imports could slow as a result, they say. That said, the AI supercycle should remain intact, as Korea's exports to China continued to accelerate, Citi says. Citi expects China's exports to grow 22% on year and imports at 30% on year in July. That compared with a 27% exports growth and 36% imports growth in June. ([email protected])0304 GMT - Iron ore prices are volatile early Tuesday while analysts are expecting further downside pressure from weak fundamentals. Global iron-ore shipments remain elevated, leading to a continued buildup in port inventories, Everbright Futures say in a note. On the demand side, hot metal output has declined for consecutive weeks, while steelmakers' profitability has deteriorated, prompting mills to take a cautious approach to raw material purchases, they add. The combination of rising supply and weaker demand has kept port inventories high and weakened cost support for prices, they say. The most actively traded September iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is flat at CNY702.5 a ton.([email protected]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)0237 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart on possible position adjustments, but it may benefit from the yen's appreciation trend. "Our analysis shows that the South Korea won, and to a smaller extent, the Thai baht, Singapore dollar and Philippines peso, in that order, are more sensitive to Japanese yen moves," MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a research report. "This is true when we look across both simple correlation metrics, and also when we look at the conditional beta of each Asian currency to yen movements," the senior currency analyst notes. Hence, if the yen appreciation trend persists, these Asian currencies, including the Singapore dollar, should benefit, Wan adds. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 1.2822 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0231 GMT - ANZ-Indeed Australian job advertisements increased 0.8% in July, to be 2.1% higher than a year earlier. Despite a challenging economy, hiring activity remains strong, says Callam Pickering, economist at jobs portal Indeed. The strength in job ads should support the unemployment rate in the near term, but that could be undermined by continuing global shocks, he adds. Cracks are likely to appear in the job market over time but they may not be significant enough to stop the Reserve Bank of Australia from raising rates again, Pickering adds. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0227 GMT - The pass-through from earlier fuel price increases and rupiah weakness look milder than previously feared after Indonesia July's softer-than-expected inflation reading, Kenanga IB economists say in a note. However, they continue to expect price pressures to build over the remainder of the year, driven by higher fuel prices, a weak rupiah and resilient domestic demand. Kenanga maintains its 2026 Indonesia inflation estimate at 3.1%, amid higher fuel prices and weak rupiah. They expect Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% in the near term, as inflation remains within target and the rupiah has stabilized around 18,000 against the U.S. dollar. The central bank is likely to remain cautious amid persistent external uncertainties and its focus on preserving rupiah stability, Kenanga adds. ([email protected])0224 GMT - Consumer inflation in the Philippines likely cooled slightly to 6.3% on year in July, according to the median estimate of nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That is a tad slower than June's 6.4% increase. Headline inflation likely edged lower in July due to lower gasoline and rice prices, Barclays analysts say in a note. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has said it expects July inflation to be within the 5.6% to 6.6% range. It also said that it would continue to monitor recent developments in the Middle East for implications on inflation and economic activity. The data are due Wednesday.([email protected])0214 GMT - Japan's stepped-up stance on FX intervention may boost the BOJ's "degree of freedom" in policy management, three members of Goldman Sachs' Economics Research say in a report. "The latest coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention will likely serve as a factor to alleviate pressure from the Japanese government on the BOJ's monetary policy," the members say. However, "whether the BOJ uses the degree of freedom is a separate issue," they say. "For the BOJ to accelerate the pace of rate hikes, it needs to judge that the risk of underlying inflation exceeding 2% is becoming a reality, through making an upward revision to its inflation outlook. At this stage, we don't judge this possibility to be high," they add. ([email protected])0209 GMT - Australian household spending was up 0.8% in June from May, but the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to play down the strength of the data, says Abhijit Surya, economist at Capital Economics. The RBA has said the spending report doesn't map across well to GDP data, he adds. With fuel tax cuts having expired, automotive fuel inflation is set to provide a boost to headline inflation. That in turn will dent household income growth, Surya adds. The RBA won't tighten policy any further, even though markets see a decent chance of another rate hike in the year ahead, he says. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0205 GMT - Indonesia's external position is expected to remain vulnerable to geopolitical developments and energy market fluctuations, UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen say in a note. While nickel's downstream initiatives and industrialization continue to support exports, the government's energy security initiatives are unlikely to deliver meaningful benefits until refinery projects are completed, they say. Indonesia could face near-term twin-deficit risks as current account and fiscal pressures build, they reckon. However, they add that ongoing downstream initiatives and export security programs could improve structural resilience over the longer term. ([email protected])0113 GMT - Coordinated Japan-U.S. yen intervention buys time, but cannot reverse the structural forces driving depreciation, say analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. A U.S.-backed operation carries more weight than Tokyo acting alone, and the pledge of further action will give speculators pause. But any U.S. contribution will likely be constrained by size, BMI says. Washington intervened by selling euros, not dollars, drawing on the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund, which has limited firepower. BMI expects the yen to weaken gradually toward 164 to the dollar as a wide interest-rate gap underpins carry trades. Structural outflows from households buying foreign equities and thinner corporate profit repatriation will weigh too. Yen last at 157.59 versus the dollar. ([email protected])0058 GMT - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is about to get a reality check, with unemployment in the country expected to rise sharply in 2Q, says ANZ. The jobless rate is expected to lift 0.2 percentage points to 5.5% in the quarter as some firms hit the pause button in the wake of heightened global uncertainty and oil price shock, it says. For the RBNZ, such a result should argue strongly for it to remain sidelined for some time. The job market is unlikely to be a source of wage pressures. The data is due on Wednesday. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)