Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows Resume — Market Talk

1146 ET - After a brief break last week, bitcoin ETFs are back to attracting capital from other assets. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million Monday, resuming a multi-week streak of inflows that were only interrupted on Friday, according to data from CoinGlass. The uptick in Treasury yields should be a factor pressuring bitcoin, but analysts say that indicators coming later this week look to establish the likelihood of an interest rate hike coming this month — which may then impact the direction for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. "The cryptocurrency could remain at risk as expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy in the United States continued to lift Treasury yields," says Milad Azar of XTB MENA in a note. ([email protected])1131 ET - Canada's planned nuclear buildout hinges on lowering its cost of capital through structural policy support rather than contractually shifting risk onto project developers, says CIBC's Krista Friesen. Pointing to a Canadian Nuclear Association report, Friesen says that "transferring risk contractually does not eliminate it," but that "assigning excessive risk to project participants can increase costs, weaken counterparties and ultimately undermine delivery." The report suggests financing frameworks must provide "cost-effective capital through predictable policy and market structures that reduce project risk and financing costs." She notes that by April 2027, the federal government is expected to release a draft policy on financing new nuclear projects and should "support further CANDU [a Canadian-designed reactor] deployment in Canada." ([email protected])1054 ET - Oil futures are higher with renewed strikes in the Persian Gulf, including attacks on two tankers carrying Saudi oil, increasing concerns about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the strait will become less important as a chokepoint given alternative ways of getting oil out of the region. "In two years the Strait of Hormuz will be a worthless piece of water. The oil will be going on pipelines across land," he says in a fireside chat with Larry Kudlow of Fox Business. Bessent stressed the latest U.S. measures to squeeze Iran economically. The June MOU didn't work because Iran wasn't ready for a deal, he says. "My job is make sure they want to have a deal." WTI is up 2.2% at $87.62 a barrel. Brent rises 1.8% to $92.06. ([email protected])1044 ET - Carnival is launching a loyalty program, as well as partnering with Barclays to roll out a new credit card. Both programs aim to drum up excitement and engagement for the cruise line, which earlier this summer issued a soft outlook for the quarter as extreme geopolitical volatility disrupts bookings and higher fuel costs weigh on profit. Carnival's loyalty program, dubbed Carnival Rewards, will allow customers to earn points on on-board purchases that can be redeemed for cruises and experiences, the company says. Its Mastercard, meanwhile, will allow users to earn points on everyday spending and apply those rewards to future cruises and excursions. "Carnival is always looking for new ways to bring our guests closer to the experiences they love," Carnival Cruise Line President Christine Duffy says in a statement. ([email protected])0909 ET - Oil futures are rising for a second session on renewed concerns about disruption of flows out of the Persian Gulf. "The latest leg higher is being driven primarily by the renewed escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with traders ignoring the controversial U.S.-Venezuela deal for now," Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com says in a note. "The near-term outlook remains heavily dependent on the supply side." Softer economic data in China and the U.S. point to some moderation in demand, "but oil is relatively demand-inelastic: consumption tends not to fall sharply simply because prices rise." WTI is up 2.6% at $87.96 a barrel and Brent gains 2.2% to $92.48.([email protected])0901 ET - A global bonds selloff continues, pushing Treasury yields higher, as the war in Iran muddles the economic outlook. Investors worry about ballooning government debt and sticky inflation. Oil keeps rising, with WTI up 2.5% to $87.92. July JOLTS report, at 10 a.m. ET, kicks off a string of U.S. labor data likely to move markets this week. Odds of a Fed hike in September tick higher to 66% from 65% yesterday. The two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Fed policy, touches 4.369%, which would be its highest settle since January 2025. The 10-year goes as high as 4.797%, also the highest in 19 months. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)0856 ET - The Bank of Canada might try to ease immediate concerns over the economic damage from escalating US-Canada trade tensions, says Ali Jaffery, chief economist at KPMG Canada. For starters, Canada tariffs on US imports, which kick in next week, mostly target intermediate goods, or inputs used to make final products, as opposed to consumer goods. Combined with the existing slack in the economy, the trade developments should not ignite immediate inflationary pressure, Jaffery tells WSJ. Canada faces two economic shocks with uneven impacts, he adds. Trade tensions will pose a drag on investment and hiring, while the Mideast conflict is keeping energy prices elevated but also lifting income in resource-rich parts of Canada. The BOC "has a very strong reason to be in wait-and-see" mode, Jaffery says. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0850 ET - The escalation in US-Canada trade tensions will weigh heavily on Bank of Canada officials when they release the latest rate-policy decision on Wednesday, says Dominique Lapointe, Manulife Wealth & Asset Management's senior director of macro strategy. Yet, trade won't drive BOC decision making because the crossborder trade backdrop could still change, Lapointe tells WSJ. Washington has imposed 50% tariffs on certain goods, Canada will impose retaliatory duties next week, and President Trump has threatened 50% levies on Canada autos and auto parts on Jan. 1. The BOC "cannot know what its next move will be in the current context. It will continue to focus on the data at hand and wait for further clarity before trade tensions impact their guidance," Lapointe says. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0847 ET - Canada's economy looks to be on more solid footing, and that will give the Bank of Canada little reason to panic about escalating US-Canada trade tensions, says Tu Nguyen, economist at RSM Canada. "It is crucial to separate the data from emotions," she tells WSJ, noting both spending and the household savings rate climbed in 2Q. The 50% tariffs the US has imposed on certain Canadian goods, totaling 5% of all US-bound exports, will be "painful in specific sectors, but manageable from the central bank's standpoint." Nguyen anticipates a BOC hike in 1Q, although acknowledging the call is subject to change due to US-Canada trade ties and energy prices. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0844 ET - Despite heated remarks from US and Canadian officials on trade, the Bank of Canada is likely to take a patient approach on rates and rely on incoming data before changing policy, says Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union. The main impact from the escalating trade row is that it increases the uncertainty about the outlook, he adds. He has a BOC rate hike penciled in for 2Q of 2027. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0841 ET - The Bank of Canada's rate-policy decision and statement Wednesday might have a dovish tone due to crossborder trade tensions, says TD Securities economist Robert Both. "The BOC has been vocal about trade tensions and tariffs as a downside risk to its outlook," Both tells WSJ. New US tariffs of 50% on certain Canadian goods, and the threat of higher auto duties, are likely to add to uncertainty, Both says. Both adds the BOC could still be in a position to raise rates in 1Q should trade tensions cool. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0838 ET - The bar for another rate cut from the Bank of Canada remains high despite the recent escalation in US-Canada trade tensions, says Carl Gomez, chief economist at Centurion Asset Management in Toronto. He tells WSJ that, notwithstanding crossborder trade concerns, financial markets remain focused on the risk of inflation accelerating in Canada. The rise in bond yields suggests "the Bank of Canada may be behind the curve on tightening rates," Gomez says. The yield on the 2-year Canada government bond is above 3%, or 75-percentage-points above the BOC policy rate of 2.25%. Gomez says the trade conflict likely delays the timing of BOC rate increases, to 2H of next year. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)