Bitcoin Edges Lower as Traders Weigh Earnings — Market Talk

0719 GMT - Bitcoin falls slightly as investors digest corporate earnings and remain cautious over the U.S.-Iran conflict. Apple and Amazon both reported stronger-than-expected quarterly revenues overnight. Amazon's shares rose but Apple fell as it forecast weaker sales growth. Crypto hoarding firm Strategy swung to a second-quarter loss, citing bitcoin's decline and "muted bitcoin sentiment and market skepticism." Meanwhile, U.S. officials said Hamas has agreed to a broad plan to disarm but acknowledged many challenges ahead. The news comes after the U.S. said it launched a heavy wave of strikes in Iran Thursday. Bitcoin falls 1.0% to $64,062, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0706 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields fall in opening trade, tracking U.S. peers, ahead of a flurry of key economic data. Flash estimate inflation figures for July will be released from France and Italy, followed by the eurozone as a whole at 0900 GMT. "Eurozone inflation should moderate in June helped by lower energy prices following the ceasefire in the Middle East," Julien Lafargue at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management says in a note. However, both core and headline inflation are likely to remain significantly above the European Central Bank's target, he says. Italian consumer and business confidence surveys are also up for release. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 1.6 basis points to 3.150%, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0649 GMT - The dollar recovers after reaching a six-week low against a basket of currencies Thursday as the yen hands back gains following the Bank of Japan's decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The yen rose sharply against the dollar Thursday following apparent currency interventions. However, the Bank of Japan stuck to its course and acted too cautiously in Friday's policy decision, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. The dollar's falls Thursday also followed softer-than-expected U.S. economic growth data and the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged. The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to 100.126 after falling to as low as 99.857 Thursday. The dollar rises 0.6% to 160.41 yen, having hit an 11-week low of 157.96 yen Thursday. ([email protected])0623 GMT - The Federal Reserve's withdrawal of forward guidance is ushering in structurally higher U.S. rates volatility which is also impacting other developed-market bonds, BNY's David Tam says in a note. The MOVE index--a key measure of Treasury-market volatility--has strong historical correlations with non-U.S. sovereign bond yields and points to a clear cross-border transmission mechanism, he says. Developed-market sovereign bonds are particularly exposed. "Their tighter integration with U.S. rates means a rising volatility environment could lead yields to spike and trigger a selloff," he says. ([email protected])0601 GMT - Eurozone rates remain caught in an "endless cycle of hope and fear" with German Bunds suffering their worst July in more than two decades, rates strategists at Barclays write in a note. "Cheaper yield levels may make it easier for post-summer supply to be absorbed, but front-end rates and global factors remain firmly in the driving seat for now," they say. While "tariff-on, tariff-off" was a feature of 2025, "war-on, war-off" is the theme of 2026, they say. At 3.15% for the 10-year Bund, they are at the cheaper end of the range, and still being driven by the Middle East conflict and its impact on growth, inflation and consequently, monetary policy, they say. ([email protected])0545 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields decline in Asian trade, reversing Thursday's increases that saw the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high of 5.244%, according to Tradeweb data. The reversal comes amid fresh signs of efforts for peace in the Middle East. U.S. officials said Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups had agreed to a plan that, if followed, would see the groups disarm and lose power in the Gaza Strip as long as Israel withdraws from the enclave. Falling oil prices also help yields move lower. With Brent last trading 1.7% lower at $87.49 a barrel, the 10-year Treasury yield falls 1.4 basis points to 4.648%, while the 30-year yield declines 1.7 basis points to 5.190%. ([email protected])0537 GMT - The U.S. Treasury is expected to leave nominal coupon and floating rate note issuance sizes unchanged for a 10th consecutive quarter, says HSBC U.S. rates strategist Dhiraj Narula in a note. The Treasury will release details of its borrowing plans at its quarterly refunding announcement on Aug. 5. HSBC also expects the Treasury to maintain its forward guidance that it 'anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters', he says. HSBC now expects increases in issuance sizes to begin in May 2027, compared with its previous forecast of February 2027. ([email protected])0535 GMT - The Bank of Japan is likely to stick to Mizuho Securities' baseline scenario of hiking interest rates every six months, which would put its next rate increase at its December meeting, says economist Yusuke Matsuo. While BOJ communication suggests the central bank could potentially move forward its next rate hike to October, a December move remains the most likely, he notes. Sticking to a six-month cadence also offers a political advantage for the BOJ, as garnering support from PM Takaichi would likely be easier, Matsuo adds. Takaichi is generally seen to be reluctant to support rapid monetary tightening. ([email protected])0535 GMT - China's July purchasing managers index data back the case for policy stimulus, say ANZ Research's Vicky Xiao Zhou and Zhaopeng Xing in a note. "The recent pullback of major commodity prices appears to have deteriorated the output price outlook, prompting firms to scale back purchases and production plans," they say. Nonmanufacturing activity also weakened significantly in July, with notably softer demand signaling weaker underlying activity at the start of 3Q, they add. The strategists see a potential window for policy stimulus in September, with the window widening if August data continue to disappoint. Possible measures include deploying around 2 trillion yuan of unused local government bond quotas, they say. ([email protected])0532 GMT - ​The substantial rise in Treasury yields across maturities is likely the most critical factor arguing against any policy moves towards raising coupon [note, bond] supply, or even simply shifting forward guidance, HSBC U.S. rates strategist Dhiraj Narula says in a note. The Treasury will release details of its borrowing plans for August-October at its quarterly refunding announcement on Aug. 5. "Long-dated rates sit at multi-decade highs, and we expect policymakers to remain wary of shifts that would drive up term premium and raise borrowing costs further," he says. When maturity extension does ultimately take place, HSBC expects increases to be concentrated in the front-end and 'belly', or the intermediate segment, Narula says. ([email protected])0527 GMT - Eurozone government bond yield spreads remain near recent highs amid persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices, with the usual seasonal tightening yet to materialize, Societe Generale rates strategists say in a note. While lower government bond issuance in August--when supply is seasonally lower--could provide some support, "we do not expect a meaningful narrowing in spreads," they say. Hawkish central banks, coupled with expectations of renewed supply and increased political uncertainty after the summer, are likely to keep investors cautious, they say. The strategists continue to favor the front end of eurozone government bond curves where carry remains the most attractive, they say. ([email protected])0520 GMT - Despite three dissents, the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to remain on hold reinforces Societe Generale strategists' view that policy uncertainty and inflation risks will continue to weigh on the long end of the curve, they say in a note. "While investors push out the timing of future hikes, higher real yields and firmer inflation expectations suggest markets are increasingly questioning the Fed's willingness to act," the strategists say. Regarding view on positioning, the strategists have moved from a flattening bias to a neutral curve stance and favor inflation breakevens as a hedge against rising inflation risk premia, they say. 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