Bitcoin Edges Higher; Easing ETF Outflows Keep Trading Range-Bound — Market Talk

2159 ET - Bitcoin edges higher in early Asian trading. ETF flows appear to be turning a corner as outflows have subsided, keeping the cryptocurrency between $63,000 and $65,000, Apollo Crypto portfolio manager Pratik Kala says. Traders are watching for a breakout above $67,000, with the proposed U.S. Clarity Act, a cryptocurrency regulation bill, seen as a key catalyst in the coming weeks, he adds. Bitcoin is last up 0.1% at $66,443.78. ([email protected])2057 ET - Investors are increasingly viewing Tokyo's intervention strategy as a multi-factor equation rather than a strict line in the sand, says SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Rinto Maruyama. Despite dollar-yen pushing well past the 160 level--long viewed as a key threshold for government action--the pair continues its gradual upward grind. Traders are shifting away from simple price-level triggers. They recognize that authorities evaluate intervention based on a complex combination of factors, including the pace of exchange-rate moves, market liquidity, speculative positioning, international coordination, and underlying economic fundamentals, Maruyama says. The dollar was last trading at 163.13 yen. ([email protected])2025 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade. However, rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields could weigh on risk sentiment, analysts say. The U.S. and Iran have continued to exchange military strikes, CBA's Samara Hammoud says in a research report. "We expect the strikes to continue for the next two months," the international economist and currency strategist says. "A continuation of the Middle East conflict should support the USD because of its safe-haven status and typically positive correlation with oil prices," Hammoud adds. The dollar rises 0.1% to 33.72 baht after earlier touching 33.73 baht, its highest intraday level since April 2025, LSEG data show. It is also 0.1% lower at 1,480.15 won. ([email protected])2013 ET - Japanese stocks are higher following a recovery in U.S. technology stocks overnight. Chip and metals stocks are leading gains. Tokyo Electron Ltd. is up 4.3%, SoftBank Group is 3.7% higher and JX Advanced Metals is up 4.1%. The dollar is at 163.15 yen, up from Y162.52 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East as fighting between the U.S. and Iran has intensified in recent days. Any comments on the yen's weakness from Japanese government officials are also in focus. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 1.3% at 67101.42. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)2004 ET - JGB futures fall in the early Tokyo session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasury market. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. JGB prices could also be weighed by ongoing rise in crude oil prices, which could lead to higher inflation in Japan and quicker pace of BOJ rate increases. Meanwhile, Japan's Finance Ministry is scheduled to auction today about 300 billion yen of 40-year sovereign debt. "We expect a decent to slightly strong auction result," SMBC Nikko Securities' Miki Den says in a research report. "The small issuance size coupled with demand from real-money investors should prevent a weak outcome," the senior Japan rates strategist adds. Benchmark 10-year JGB futures are Y0.21 lower at Y127.48. ([email protected])1950 ET - The dollar tests resistance versus the yen on a trendline drawn from January 2026 high after the dollar-yen pair's upward break to the highest since December 1986 on Tuesday, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. This trendline coincides with Tuesday's high, making it a valid interim resistance level, the senior market analyst says. The dollar's "monthly R1 pivot" at 163.72 yen and the Y165.30 level could be subsequent resistance levels if trendline resistance breaks, Simpson says. However, the currency pair seems stretched on the one-hour chart, while bearish relative strength index divergences have formed in overbought territory, raising the potential for a near-term pullback, Simpson adds. The dollar is steady at Y163.20 after touching Y163.23 overnight, LSEG data show. ([email protected])1941 ET - Japanese stocks may rise following a recovery in U.S. technology stocks overnight. Nikkei futures are up 1.3% at 67150 on the SGX. The dollar is at 163.20 yen, up from Y162.52 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on Middle East developments as fighting between the U.S. and Iran has intensified in recent days. Any comments from Japanese government officials on the yen's recent depreciation are also being closely watched. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 3.3% to 66232.19 on Tuesday. ([email protected])1931 ET - Despite surging fuel costs, rising interest rates and elevated inflation rates, Australian business insolvencies declined 3.9% in the year to June 30, says business data monitoring firm Creditorwatch. The fall was supported by income-tax cuts in 2024 and interest-rate reductions in 2025, giving support to high-risk sectors such as construction and hospitality, it says. Still, trade-payment defaults and tax debts are rising again, signaling increasing pressures, it adds. Even a single trade-payment default significantly increases insolvency risk to more than 10 times the national average over the following 12 months, it says. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)1851 ET [Dow Jones]--The U.S. dollar edged higher through U.S. and European trading as the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day, says Samara Hammoud, currency strategist at CBA. CBA expects the strikes in the Middle East to continue for the next two months, bringing with it a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent oil prices toward US$100 per barrel. A continuation of the Middle East conflict should support the USD because of its safe‑haven status and typically positive correlation with oil prices, Hammoud adds. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)1752 ET - Moody's Ratings said it expects Argentina will see GDP growth around 3.4% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. The agency raised its ratings on Argentina's long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings to B3 from Caa1 and changed the outlook to positive from stable. World Bank data show Argentina experienced negative GDP growth in 2023 and 2024, before rebounding to 4.4% growth last year. "Fiscal discipline, declining inflation and increasing policy credibility are likely to continue, while large-scale investments in energy and mining are likely to translate into sustained gains in export capacity and foreign exchange earnings," Moody's said. ([email protected])1446 ET - Ongoing trade-related uncertainty is going to keep USDCAD above the 1.40 for the foreseeable future, says TD Securities. The firm says that, so far, President Trump's plan to impose a new 50% tariff has triggered "fairly muted" market reaction. The reason, TD says, is the hefty tariff would apply to a small share of total US-Canada trade, thereby minimizing the duty's impact. USDCAD is up 0.26%, while Canada yields are down slightly. TD says the muted response likely reflects fatigue among traders about the trade acrimony between Ottawa and Washington. Traders may also be leaning on remarks last week from Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem, who suggests firms are adjusting to a new U.S.-Canada trade reality, the firm says. ([email protected], @paulvieira)1334 ET - As demand for homebuilding softened midway through 2Q, D.R. Horton says it prioritized gross margin instead of finding ways to push unit volume, management says on a call with analysts. As such, the company trimmed its full-year home delivery forecast to protect profitability. Doing so helped get home sales gross margin to 20.7% for the quarter, the high end of the company's guidance, as stick-and-brick costs came down 5%. While the company still has significant long-term growth ambitions, it is choosing to hold margin steady for now, management says. ([email protected])