Bitcoin Consolidates But Fed Rate Hike Expectations May Weigh — Market Talk

2129 ET - Bitcoin consolidates in early Asian trade. The hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI reading has raised expectations for a Fed rate hike later this month. For cryptocurrencies, higher rates can weigh on investors' risk appetite and increase the appeal of yield-bearing assets, says XS.com's Antonio Di Giacomo in a note. Fed rate hike expectations continue to influence demand across the market, despite technological advances and more institutional participation, he adds. Bitcoin is last at $81,756.96. ([email protected])2104 ET - Asian currencies are mixed against the dollar, but may be weighed by higher prospects of Fed rate hikes. U.S. data released overnight showed core inflation was 0.3% on month in September, above consensus estimate for a 0.2% on month increase, CBA's Samara Hammoud notes. "Markets are now pricing a 34% chance of an October interest rate hike, compared with 20% before the data," the international economist and currency strategist says in a research report. The dollar falls 0.3% to 157.86 yen, but is 0.7% higher at 1,347.60 won, while the Australian dollar declines 0.2% to US$0.6952, LSEG data show. ([email protected])2056 ET - JGBs rise in price terms in the early Tokyo session amid risk-off sentiment spurred by equity-market losses in the U.S. overnight and in Asia today. The risk-off mood is intensifying, with all three major U.S. indices falling on Wednesday, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities' fixed income strategists say in commentary. Buying is likely to dominate the JGB market, the strategists add. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The two-year JGB yield edges down 1 bp to 1.910% and the five-year yield is down 4 bps at 2.330%. The 10-year yield drops 5.5 bps to 2.940%, its lowest intraday level since Sept. 10, according to data provider Quick. ([email protected])2015 ET - The Nikkei Stock Average falls 2.9% to 65755.28, tracking Wall Street's losses overnight. The U.S. inflation report released Wednesday "revived expectations of another interest rate hike by the Fed," XS.com's Antonio Di Giacomo says in an email. "Higher price pressures, elevated yields, and concerns about technology companies reduced risk appetite," the senior market analyst adds. Among the worst performers on Japan's benchmark index, Ibiden drops slides 9.8%, Fujikura falls 8.6%, and Kioxia Holdings drops 8.2%. The dollar is at 157.86 yen versus Y158.30 around Wednesday's Tokyo market close. ([email protected])1938 ET - Japanese stocks may fall, tracking Wall Street's losses overnight. Persistent tensions in the Middle East and concerns over rising inflation appear to be damping investor appetite for risk assets. U.S. data released Wednesday showed consumer prices rose 3.7% on year in September, stronger than the 3.6% increase tipped by a Wall Street Journal poll of economists. Nikkei futures opened 1,850 points lower at 66310 on the SGX. The dollar is at 158.06 yen versus Y158.30 around Wednesday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 0.05% lower at 67744.29 on Wednesday. ([email protected])1749 ET - Australia's September employment data at 0030 GMT will further shape bets on a further rise in interest rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia next month. Economists expect a small gain in employment with the jobless rate unchanged at 4.6%. But the data is notorious for serving up surprises. The recent trend has been toward higher unemployment, and with pressures building on growth, there's the risk that it goes even higher. Still, the RBA is now signaling a willingness to tolerate pain in the job market if it means getting inflation back to target. So even a rise in unemployment probably won't unsettle the RBA. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)1544 ET - Treasury yields fall from inflation-induced highs as the steep bond selloff of past weeks seems to fade away. September CPI accelerates more than expected, supporting the prospect of high interest rates for the time being. Markets still price in a Fed hold this month, but odds of a hike rise on the inflation report. The Producer Price Index tomorrow is also expected to accelerate, according to a WSJ consensus. September retail sales growth is forecast to slow and weekly jobless claims to remain rangebound. The 10-year yield slips 0.027 percentage point to 5.189%, its lowest level in nearly three weeks. The two-year is slightly up, at 4.800%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1514 ET - Lean hog futures settled trading down 2.9% at 66.075 cents a pound. That brings the continuous contract to near its lowest close since early January 2024, according to data from FactSet. Pressure stemming from a hot CPI print this morning spanned commodities, including livestock. A higher USD index makes U.S. exports less attractive to buyers, while the expectation of higher interest rates to combat inflation experienced a resurgence. The conviction of markets that a rate hike is imminent faded as the day progressed, with the CME's FedWatch now showing a 66% chance of interest rates staying unchanged after the Oct. 28 Fed meeting. Live cattle settled down 0.5% to $2.2515 a pound. ([email protected])1510 ET - Bitcoin's more recent buyers are the ones capping its price lately, according to an analysis from Glassnode. Buyers from the past two years still have a cost basis that's higher than $88,000, and they've turned the price back twice this year, the analysts say. Longer-term holders, meanwhile, have largely stopped selling at a loss. Holders that are already in the black are selling more than those who are in the red, as has been seen in past recoveries, they say. Until Bitcoin is able to close above $88,000, each push higher is going to encounter those recent buyers who can finally sell near their break-even, the analysts say. ([email protected])1459 ET - Canadians continue to spend through elevated energy prices but momentum is cooling, cardholder tracking by Royal Bank of Canada indicates. The bank's estimate of core retail sales, excluding gas and autos, rose 0.4% in September on a three-month average. That is slower than the 0.6% advance in August. Cardholder spending shows discretionary services once again led, with gains across a range of categories, and purchases on essentials also remains positive if gas is stripped out. But spending on discretionary goods was roughly flat on a three-month average despite growth in September and continued outlays on clothing, economist Abbey Xu says. Expected improvements in household incomes and the labor market should provide support, yet high energy costs continue to weigh, Xu says.([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1407 ET - Gold and silver futures settle lower after U.S. consumer price inflation for September landed above estimates, increasing market expectations for a Fed interest-rate rise this month and pushing the U.S. dollar higher. Continuing attacks in the Persian Gulf add pressure by lifting oil prices, "sustaining the risk that energy-led inflation complicates the Fed's path," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. Front month gold settles down 1.6% in New York at $4,084.80 a troy ounce. Silver falls 6.1% to $55.55 a troy ounce, its lowest close in almost 11 months. ([email protected])1404 ET - Economic uncertainty is prompting many Americans to pull back on planned Halloween spending, according to LendingTree's 2026 Halloween spending survey. The survey shows 80% of respondents plan on making Halloween-related purchases, down from 90% in 2025. Spending is also expected to decline, dropping 16% from 2025 to an average of $162, the survey revealed. The survey also shows 38% expect to spend more than last year, while the 61% skipping purchases due to economic uncertainty are cutting back on candy, decorations, and costumes. ([email protected])