Bitcoin Calls Accumulate Above $90k — Market Talk

1250 ET - While analysts say that a positive sentiment around bitcoin is starting to fade, at least in the short-term, data shows that investors are accumulating long-facing options at over $90,000. Other popular targets include strike prices of $95,000 and $100,000, according to data from Deribit. Fund traders are continuing to return to bitcoin ETFs as well, with days of consecutive inflows now up to 8 days - with an inflow of $31 million seen yesterday, according to data from Coinglass. Bitcoin is currently trading lower, down 0.3% to $83,238. Ethereum is flat at $2,682, XRP is up 1.5% $1.52, and solana is down 0.2% to $118.57. ([email protected])1210 ET - With no end in sight for the bonds selloff, investors are left searching for relatively safe spots in the yield curve. SanJac Alpha's Andrew Wells says the seven-to-10-year section could be that spot. "For now, we view duration with skepticism," he says. Upcoming data will drive markets, but the yields are biased upwards, as market's sentiment is "Asymmetrically hawkish in only one direction," Wells says in an email. A hot PCE print tomorrow will give "more tightening ammunition," while a soft one will be discounted as "August data that isn't accounting for September oil," he says. The 30-year yield hits 5.612%, a 24-year high. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1143 ET - Select altcoins are posting big gains, with Avalanche (AVAX) up 8.8% to $11.54. Aave, the token native to the Aave DeFi platform, is jumping 17.3% to $175.40. For both Aave and AVAX, it's the highest the tokens have traded at since January. Interest in altcoins continues to drive recent cryptocurrency trading, with activity in altcoin at its highest since last October, according to analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. However, the firm also says, demand for bitcoin appears to be cooling in the short term, which may soon be a drag on altcoins. Bitcoin climbs 0.4% to $83,799, ethereum rises 1.2% to $2,712, and XRP is up 3.5% to $1.55. ([email protected])1125 ET - Today's disappointing headline figure for consumer-confidence data shouldn't come as a surprise, eToro's Bret Kenwell says in a note. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, gas prices are still high and inflation continues to outpace wage growth, squeezing consumers' spending power, Kenwell says. Sentiment is currently sitting at multi-year lows from persistent inflation and higher costs putting pressure on households, he says. The question now is whether these factors will weigh on consumer spending, Kenwell says. ([email protected])1101 ET - Buying a new home is now typically a better value than an existing home nationwide, Zillow says. New homes now sell for a median of $205 per square foot, below the $212 median for existing homes, according to a Zillow study. The relative discount for new homes is usually biggest where construction surged during the pandemic boom, particularly in the Sun Belt. This reverses the trend in recent years, when new homes sold for more per square foot than existing homes in 77 of 84 months from 2018 to 2024. Where construction has boomed and inventory is plentiful, discounts run deeper as increased competition gives builders more reason to offer incentives. Where inventory remains locked up and new construction faces more hurdles, builder offerings lean toward the higher end and carry a premium, Zillow says. ([email protected])1057 ET - The August JOLTS report showed available job positions sliding to 7.1 million from 7.3 million in July, a bigger downward drift than economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had been expecting. JOLTS might not carry the same weight as the monthly jobs report on Friday, but this is the third time in a row that the results have been weaker than expected, eToro's Bret Kenwell says in a note. The report reinforces the low-hire, low-fire backdrop that has taken hold, Kenwell says. ([email protected])1049 ET - The latest data suggests Canada's economy is holding up a little better than previously anticipated in 3Q, with GDP growth tracking around a 2% annualized pace, CIBC Capital Markets' Andrew Grantham says. That is modestly above CIBC's prior forecast of 1.6% growth but Grantham still suspects the direct impact of new U.S. tariffs and the indirect impact on consumer and business confidence will likely result in growth slowing in the near term and dipping below 1% in 4Q. Assuming a trade deal is reached, growth should pick up again to start 2027, the economist adds. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1045 ET - The Conference Board reports consumer confidence fell sharply in September as gasoline prices surged and consumers grew more pessimistic about business and labor-market conditions. As economists monitor Wednesday's PCE inflation report--the Fed's preferred inflation measure--the Conference Board survey shows that the share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped by 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%.([email protected])1024 ET - Canada is tracking 1.9% annualized growth for 3Q, slower than in the prior quarter but still enough to take out some slack in the economy, KPMG Canada's Peter Shannon says. Monthly GDP was steady in July but is estimated to have increased 0.2% on-month in August, which Shannon says reinforces the view the economy was experiencing a decent mid-year recovery before the latest U.S. tariffs took effect. The economist expects the fresh tariffs to reduce GDP by about half a percent over about a year, mostly through lower exports but with some spillovers to consumption and investment. Shannon maintains the view the Bank of Canada will remain on hold for the foreseeable future as the economy is still operating below capacity. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1020 ET - CBOT grain futures are retreating from earlier signs of strength, this as the 10-year Treasury yield sits at the highest level since 2007. Higher Treasury yields are pushing the U.S. dollar index up, which is often a pressure point for grains as a stronger dollar often means grains from other origins on the export market are more affordable. Currency pressure is a factor causing grains to pare gains seen earlier in the day, with most-active corn futures now up only 0.3% and soybeans up 0.6%, while wheat is flat. ([email protected])1020 ET - The Canadian economy continues to hang in there despite the ongoing trade headwinds, Bank of Montreal's Benjamin Reitzes argues. Flat GDP in July and an estimate for 0.2% growth on-month in August puts 3Q GDP growth in line or slightly better than the Bank of Canada's forecast for a 1.5% annualized expansion, Reitzes says. He says there is nothing in the GDP report to heavily skew the balance of risks for the October monetary policy meeting, with inflation, energy prices and the upcoming central bank business outlook survey likely to be the key inputs for policymakers. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1019 ET - Sterling shows little reaction after U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced plans to reform pensions in a speech Tuesday, as widely expected. From 2030 the government will adjust the triple lock on pensions, which ensures state pensions rise in line with average earnings, inflation or 2.5%, whichever is highest. Instead pensions will rise every year in line with inflation, or 2.5%. Burnham scrapped the earnings element, saying state pensions would hold their value "relative to earnings over time." He also pledged to build a national care service, create a public body to invest in the electricity grid and strengthen control of water companies. Sterling falls 0.2% to $1.3222 and is flat at 0.8573 per euro, both little changed from levels before the speech. ([email protected])