Bitcoin buy signal appears ahead of Fed rate decision

A closely watched momentum indicator is telling Bitcoin traders to go long, and the timing couldn't be more interesting. The TD Sequential has generated a buy signal on Bitcoin's chart just ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 16, 2026, setting up a classic tension between technical optimism and macroeconomic headwinds.Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,000, stuck in a consolidation range that has frustrated bulls and bears alike. The TD Sequential signal suggests a potential rebound within three to nine days, assuming selling pressure continues to wane.The TD Sequential is a momentum indicator created by Thomas DeMark. It works by counting consecutive candles in the same direction and typically flags a potential reversal after nine of them appear in sequence.When the indicator prints a buy setup, it's suggesting that downside momentum is exhausting itself. It doesn't guarantee a reversal, but it has a decent track record of identifying moments when sellers are running out of steam.Analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted recurring TD Sequential buy setups on Bitcoin in the past, frequently noting short-term upward movements when the signal appears near technical support levels. The current signal arrives with Bitcoin sitting in a range where selling pressure has been limited but buyer enthusiasm hasn't been strong enough to trigger a breakout either.Interest-rate futures are pricing in an 88.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.63% heading into the decision, reflecting expectations that the Fed isn't done tightening. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation-indexed yield sits at 2.55%, a level that historically makes risk assets like Bitcoin work harder to attract capital.One scenario that could thread the needle: the Fed hikes as expected but softens its forward guidance. Markets have a long history of "sell the rumor, buy the news" reactions around rate decisions. If traders have already priced in the hike (and at 88.5% probability, they largely have), the actual announcement could remove an overhang rather than create new selling pressure.Historical trading patterns around major macroeconomic events show mixed results for Bitcoin. Hawkish announcements have frequently triggered "sell the news" reactions, where prices dip in the immediate aftermath before recovering over the following days or weeks. That pattern would actually align with the TD Sequential's three-to-nine-day recovery window.On the bullish side: selling pressure has diminished, the signal has a reasonable historical hit rate near support levels, and the rate hike is already heavily priced into markets. On the bearish side: real yields remain elevated, the Fed has shown little appetite for dovish pivots, and Bitcoin has struggled to generate sustained buying interest at current levels.