Bernstein sees bitcoin reaching $150,000 by mid-2027 amid ‘debasement trade,’ but cuts Strategy target to $350

Bernstein analysts expect bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 at the peak of its next cycle in 2029, arguing that a broader "debasement trade" could provide an additional macro tailwind for the cryptocurrency.In a note to clients on Wednesday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said the 40-year era of declining interest rates has come to an end, with governments facing rising debt-servicing costs as sovereign debt levels hit $40 trillion in the U.S. "Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits, and increased borrowing needs, making debt sustainability a growing policy challenge," the analysts said. Bernstein expects policymakers to ultimately favor currency debasement over fiscal stress, potentially increasing demand for scarce assets that cannot be easily created or diluted, including bitcoin.That thesis is also showing up in exchange-traded fund trading activity. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said Tuesday that the "debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania," with BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, and SPDR's gold ETF, GLD, returning to the top 10 most-traded ETFs and displacing some semiconductor funds that dominated the rankings over the summer.The Bernstein analysts cited bitcoin's holder base, wider institutional and retail access, and a more conducive regulatory environment as factors supporting its "hard asset" credentials. Around 59% of bitcoin supply has not moved in the past 12 months, the analysts said, while the cryptocurrency has gained 28% over the past 10 days following a roughly 50% drawdown since its October 2025 peak. Bernstein said increased participation through spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buying may have helped limit the decline compared with the 75% to 90% drawdowns seen in previous cycles.A $500,000 bitcoin bull case but reduced Strategy targetBernstein's base case assumes bitcoin continues to follow its historical four-year cycle, using a model that values the cryptocurrency as a multiple of the marginal cost of production. Under that scenario, bitcoin returns to around $125,000 by the end of 2026, rises to $150,000 by mid-2027, and reaches approximately $300,000 in 2029.However, Bernstein also made the case for an accelerated timeline amid the macro regime shift. If institutional capital chases bitcoin more aggressively amid currency debasement, the analysts see the cryptocurrency reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially peaking at $500,000 in 2029. The firm maintained its longer-term bitcoin forecast of around $1 million by the end of 2033.Meanwhile, Bernstein also maintained its Outperform rating on bitcoin treasury company Strategy, but cut its price target to $350 from $450, citing its updated bitcoin cycle outlook and accelerated equity dilution. The target represents 176% upside from Strategy's $126.83 closing price on Tuesday.Strategy currently holds 840,447 BTC, or roughly 4% of bitcoin's total supply, while Bernstein said its strengthened balance sheet provides around 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest and preferred dividend obligations. However, the analysts added that continued bitcoin strength and a recovery in Strategy's STRC preferred stock toward $100 could see the company "going kinetic again with bitcoin purchases."Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.