10x Research Says Bitcoin May Decouple From the S&P 500 as September Rate Cut Bets Build

10x Research said Bitcoin may be breaking away from its correlation with the S&P 500, and that it could benefit alongside gold if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September due to weakening summer employment. According to ChainCatcher, the firm said bond traders briefly priced in a September rate hike after the July FOMC meeting in 2026, with markets implying two hikes before year-end, but it does not expect the four July voters who leaned toward holding rates to suddenly shift to a higher bar for tightening within six weeks.The firm said seasonality is more important, noting that the labor market has historically weakened during the summer. It said similar softening helped drive rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025, and that after the World Cup ends, another round of weaker jobs data could force bond traders to reassess hike expectations, potentially benefiting gold and Bitcoin.