Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?
Bitcoin abandoned early hopes of an immediate recovery after the crypto asset continued to fall on Feb. 5, following a volatile weekly open, during which daily high and low values were almost $11,000 apart. BTC’s daily chart closed under $100,000 for the second time since Jan. 15, with the markets estimating a period of consolidation over the next few days. After the massive liquidation event, a cooldown period was expected for investors to readjust their positions and question whether additional downside is on the way.How do Bitcoin drawdowns compare?Despite the current market trepidation, Bitcoin’s price remains ~11% below its all-time high of $109,026. This is a minor drawdown for a volatile asset, which is up 131% in just over a year. From a market trend standpoint, it is crucial to establish the threshold at which a drawdown transitions from a routine decline to a significant downturn or crash.Over the past three bull cycles, the average BTC drawdown has progressively declined. During the 2016-2017 cycle, the average correction stood at -38%, dropping further down to -23.25% in the 2020-2021 bull run. In 2024-2025, the maximum BTC drawdown is 26%, which took place over a period of six months from March to August 2024. The average drawdown was a mere 12% for 2024-2025; in 2025, it is 8.9%. Therefore, none of the corrections since August 2024 can be considered a crash since most of the corrections have been relatively lower than the average drawdown over the past six months. Related: ‘Atypical’ Bitcoin bull market can extend beyond March 2025 — ResearchWill Bitcoin price crash to $90,000?After failing to establish a daily candle close above $105,000, Bitcoin’s market structure is beginning to mirror the consolidation phase that took shape in March 2024. Over a period of six months, BTC formed a lower high and lower low pattern, which saw the price drop from a high of $73,881 to a low of $49,000. However, the lowest candle close was around $54,839. The worst-case scenario for Bitcoin, which does not alter current average drawdowns, is a drop-down to $81,500 from its current all-time high, which is exactly 26%. Meanwhile, a correction down to $90,000 is close to 14%, which is roughly 60% of the largest drawdown from the current cycle. Therefore, there is a probability that BTC will re-test the $90,000 over the next few weeks, considering the market structure is becoming bearish in the short term. Related: The lesson of El Salvador’s failed Bitcoin experimentThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.