Bitcoin Eases After Hitting Record High — Market Talk
0738 GMT - Bitcoin eases as traders take profits after the cryptocurrency reached a record high overnight. The cryptocurrency's earlier rally reflects rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will restart interest rate cuts in September, which have boosted risk appetite, IG analysts say in a note. Bitcoin is also supported by an improved regulatory outlook for digital assets and strong institutional investor inflows, they say. Bitcoin falls 0.9% to $121,718 after hitting an all-time high of $124,480 overnight, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0736 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds are little changed following better-than-expected GDP data. The U.K. second quarter growth stood at 0.3%, above the 0.1% consensus forecast by economists in a WSJ poll. However, this week's labor-market data showed weakness and, together with the GDP data, this indicates an economy stuck in "slow growth, high cost environment," Moneyfarm's Richard Flax says in a note. "For [Bank of England] policymakers, the dilemma remains: act too soon to support growth and risk reigniting inflation, or hold steady and potentially risk a deeper slowdown." Ten-year gilt yields are steady at 4.585%, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0732 GMT - Treasury yields fall to their lowest in a week as investors increasingly bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. This follows weak jobs data and inflation data which didn't reveal a severe impact on prices from tariffs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also reiterated a call for a 50 basis-points rate cut in September in an interview with Bloomberg Wednesday. Investors await U.S. producer price data at 1230 GMT. This data "could offer further insight into the cost pressures that companies are facing currently," Danske Bank analysts say in a note. Ten-year Treasury yields fall 2 basis points to a one-week low of 4.215%, while two-year yields fall to a 10-day low of 3.664%, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0710 GMT - The dollar falls against a basket of currencies as expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates in September build. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated his call for a 50 basis points rate cut next month and argued for a series of cuts in an interview with Bloomberg Wednesday. Meanwhile, President Trump said Wednesday that he could name the next Fed chair a "little bit early" and was down to three or four potential candidates to replace Jerome Powell, according to media reports. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 97.725 after hitting a two-and-a-half-week low of 97.632 on Wednesday. ([email protected])0647 GMT - The stronger-than-expected 0.3% rise in U.K. second-quarter GDP won't likely sway Bank of England rate setters over concerns on the health of the economy, Suren Thiru at the Institute of Chartered Accountants says. "Following the bumper first three months of 2025, this second quarter slowdown offers a more authentic insight into the U.K.'s underlying growth path given persistent problems with anemic productivity and poor public finances," he says. Still, a September interest-rate cut remains implausible due to mounting concerns over inflation, Thiru says. Third-quarter growth may be similarly slow, with higher inflation and tax hikes at the budget in the fall adding to caution on spending, he says. ([email protected])0636 GMT - Sterling rises to a two-week high against the euro after data showed the U.K. economy grew by more than expected in the second quarter. The economy expanded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, more than the 0.1% growth forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. "From a monetary policy standpoint, the robust GDP performance reduces prospects for Bank of England rate cuts in coming months following August's relatively narrow voting margin," says Jonathon Marchant, fund manager at Mattioli Woods, in a note. The BOE voted 5-4 to cut rates last week. The euro falls to a low of 0.8610 pounds after the data from 0.8620 beforehand. Against the dollar, sterling rises to $1.3585 from $1.3572. ([email protected])0625 GMT - The Japanese economy likely avoided a technical recession in the April-June period, according to a poll of economists by data provider Quick. Real GDP is estimated to have grown 0.3% in annualized terms during the second quarter, compared with a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter, the poll shows. NLI Research Institute economist Taro Saito says the economy could shrink again in the third quarter due to weakness in exports. Japanese automakers have responded to higher U.S. tariffs with price reductions to maintain their competitiveness in the American market, but it is difficult to continue such a practice for long, he adds. Second-quarter GDP data is due Friday morning. ([email protected])0453 GMT - Bitcoin prints yet another record, as bullish sentiment buoys appetite for riskier assets like crypto. U.S. CPI data has boosted Fed rate-cut hopes, which have been bolstered by comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling for aggressive easing. The remarks have markets contemplating the growing likelihood of a Fed inclined to deliver deeper cuts, sooner, says Vishnu Varathan at Mizuho Securities. That would be a notable pivot away from the current guarded pause within a gradual easing cycle. While Bessent is imploring greater urgency for substantially lower rates, even Fed doves only concede room--not urgency--to cut, the analyst says. Bitcoin last at $123,261 after earlier touching $124,480, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0450 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to cut rates twice more by 1Q 2026, two economists at BofA Global Research say in a note. The central bank's policy rate outlook should be guided mainly by Thailand's economic and inflation trends, which are still expected to stay weak, signaling the need for further cuts, the economists say. Although the BOT's rate cut on Wednesday may seem surprising, this move doesn't appear to be a panic move or a shift toward an aggressively dovish stance given the central bank's hawkish tone at its prior meeting, the economists say. Wednesday's decision reinforces BofA's view that the BOT is avoiding explicit forward guidance and is willing to adjust its stance on a meeting-by-meeting basis. ([email protected])0429 GMT - Australia's economy is moving closer to full employment, with historically low levels of unemployment likely to be retained, says ANZ economist Aaron Luk. Forward indicators of hiring remain solid, with forward orders by firms picking up, he says. The ANZ-Indeed Australian job ads series remains stable, and ANZ expects a relatively steady unemployment rate in the near-term, peaking at 4.3% this year (4.2% in July), before falling slightly to 4.2% by the end of 2026, Luk adds. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0348 GMT - The Bank of Thailand likely left the door open to more rate cuts, Nomura economists write in a research report. The decision to lower the policy rate was unanimous and driven by the central bank's concerns about financial conditions. The unanimous vote also suggests that those who were against reducing rates previously are seeing more reason for the move, the economists say. Nomura reiterates its forecast that the BOT will cut the policy rate this October and in the first quarter of next year by 25 bps each time. ([email protected])0328 GMT - Australia's July labor force data suggests that the market is making a pivotal shift away from the unsustainable hiring spree that drove unemployment below historic norms toward a more balanced trajectory, says Sunny Nguyen at Moody's Analytics. Trend employment growth slowed to match population growth for the first time in a year, suggesting the job market's exceptional strength is moderating to a more sustainable setting, she writes in a note. High participation expands capacity and helps cap unit labor cost pressure, supporting disinflation without requiring an abrupt labor market downdraft. The RBA has scope to proceed cautiously, watching high-frequency indicators like job ads to ensure easing doesn't outpace productivity and supply-side capacity. ([email protected])